This paper examines the vulnerability to flooding and erosion of four open beach study sites in Europe. A framework for the quantitative estimation of present and future coastal flood and erosion risks is established using methods, data and tools from across a range of disciplines, including topographic and bathymetric data, climate data from observation, hindcast and model projections, statistical modelling of current and future climates and integrated risk analysis tools. Uncertainties in the estimation of future coastal system dynamics are considered, as are the consequences for the inland systems. Different implementations of the framework are applied to the study sites which have different wave, tidal and surge climate conditions. These sites are: Santander, Spain—the Atlantic Ocean; Bellocchio, Italy—the Adriatic Sea; Varna, Bulgaria—the Black Sea; and the Teign Estuary, UK—the northern Atlantic Ocean. The complexity of each system is first simplified by sub-division into coastal “impact units” defined by homogeneity in the local key forcing parameters: wave, wind, tide, river discharge, run-off, etc. This reduces the simulation to that of a number of simpler linear problems which are treated by applying the first two components of the Source–Pathway–Receptor–Consequence (S–P–R–C) approach. The case studies reveal the flexibility of this approach, which is found useful for the rapid assessment of the risks of flooding and erosion for a range of scenarios and the likely effectiveness of flood defences
Tropical cyclones and Cold-Fronts lead to storm surge and wave hazards annually in the coastal zones of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. Anthropogenic intervention over a wide extension of these coasts has affected their natural equilibrium and resilience to these extreme natural phenomena. An integrated risk analysis is presented here, which aims to prevent or reduce serious beach erosion damage and inundation of settlements next to these beaches. Two important coastal lagoon barriers in Mexico were selected to develop the risk assessment methodology: Isla del Carmen, on the Gulf of Mexico; and Cancun, on the Caribbean coast. While both are important for socio-economic and ecological reasons, the contrast between the high-poverty zones in Isla del Carmen and the luxurious tourist development of Cancun facilitates the integration of a common vulnerability approach, which can be applicable to any other location affected by similar hazards. This paper proposes a methodology to evaluate the socioeconomic risk of inundation; integrating the SPRC concept and the spatial variability of the risk, focusing on the parameters related to the resilience of the receptors and intangible indirect losses.
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