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Do machine learning algorithms perform better than statistical survival analysis when predicting retirement decisions? This exploratory article addresses the question by constructing a pseudo-panel with retirement data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). The analysis consists of two methodological steps prompted by the nature of the data. First, a discrete Cox survival model of transitions to retirement with time-dependent covariates is compared to a Cox model without time-dependent covariates and a survival random forest. Second, the best performing model (Cox with time-dependent covariates) is compared to random forests adapted to time-dependent covariates by means of simulations. The results from the analysis do not clearly favor a single method; whereas machine learning algorithms have a stronger predictive power, the variables they use in their predictions do not necessarily display causal relationships with the outcome variable. Therefore, the two methods should be seen as complements rather than substitutes. In addition, simulations shed a new light on the role of some variables—such as education and health—in retirement decisions. This amounts to both substantive and methodological contributions to the literature on the modeling of retirement.

This article assesses the perception of the European Union’s trade-labour linkage policy by the developing countries at the bilateral level. While the normative foci of the policy are on human rights, social justice and regulation, it is uncertain whether the developing countries view the linkage in those terms. Drawing on a constructivist theoretical background, the developing countries’ perceptions are assessed, taking into account the discussions that, at the multilateral level, have preceded the European Union’s incorporation of labour-oriented provisions to preferential trade agreements. These discussions, which mainly took place during the WTO Ministerial Meetings, featured a strong polarization between linkage advocates and detractors. The possibility that the discussion has spilled over from the multilateral into the bilateral field is explored by analyzing the positions of Brazil, Chile, India and South Africa towards the linkage in their bilateral relations with the European Union

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