Oceanic inflow is estimated to contribute more than 90% of the nutrient input into the North Sea. Variability in the volume, chemical properties, biological content and source of the inflowing water is thus likely to have a considerable effect on North Sea ecosystems. Changes seen in the plankton, and in particular Calanus finmarchicus and Calanus helgolandicus, over the last 40 years as measured by the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey, allow clear periods to be identified that appear to be associated with variability in inflow. Monthly estimates of inflow and outflow across a section between Orkney and Utsira in Norway as well as netflow (sum of Baltic outflow, runoff and Channel inflow), have been derived from runs of the NOR-WECOM model for two integrated depth intervals: surface to 150 m and >150 m. A comparison is made between the physical model output and plankton results for the period 1958-99. Distinct plankton periods that appear to reflect changing inflow events are discussed in relation to hydrometeorological and earlier plankton studies over approximately the last 100 years.
The Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) is economically one of the world's most important marine species--a species presently suffering from heavy overexploitation throughout its range of distribution. Although not fully understood, the Atlantic cod is believed to be structured into populations in a rather complex manner, whereby both highly migratory and more confined ocean-spawning stocks coexist with stationary coastal populations. Owing to the complex population structure, little is presently known about how overexploitation of offshore stocks may affect other segments of the species. Here, we use microsatellite DNA analyses of coastal and offshore cod in combination with oceanographic modelling to investigate the population structure of Atlantic cod in the North Sea-Skagerrak area and evaluate the potential for larval transport into coastal populations. Our results suggest an extensive but temporally variable drift of offshore cod larvae into coastal populations. In a year (2001) with high inflow of North Sea waters into the Skagerrak we find that juvenile cod caught along the Skagerrak coast are predominantly of North Sea origin, whereas in a year (2000) with low inflow juveniles appear to be of local origin. These findings indicate that offshore cod may influence coastal cod populations over large distances.
In this paper the results from a workshop of the OSPAR Intersessional Correspondence Group on Eutrophication Modelling (ICG-EMO) held in Lowestoft in 2007 are presented. The aim of the workshop was to compare the results of a number of North Sea ecosystem models under different reduction scenarios. In order to achieve comparability of model results the participants were requested to use a minimum spin-up time, common boundary conditions which were derived from a widerdomain model, and a set of common forcing data, with special emphasis on a complete coverage of river nutrient loads. Based on the OSPAR requirements river loads were derived, taking into account the reductions already achieved between 1985 and 2002 for each country. First, for the year 2002, for which the Comprehensive Procedure was applied, the different horizontal distributions of net primary production are compared. Furthermore, the differences in the net primary production between the hindcast run and the 50% nutrient reduction runs are displayed. In order to compare local results, the hindcast and reduction runs are presented for selected target areas and scored against the Comprehensive Procedure assessment levels for the parameters DIN, DIP and chlorophyll. Finally, the temporal development of the assessment parameter bottom oxygen concentration from several models is compared with data from the Dutch monitoring station Terschelling 135. The conclusion from the workshop was that models are useful to support the application of the OSPAR Comprehensive Procedure. The comparative exercise formulated specifically for the
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