The XOR-satisfiability (XORSAT) problem requires finding an assignment of n Boolean variables that satisfy m exclusive OR (XOR) clauses, whereby each clause constrains a subset of the variables. We consider random XORSAT instances, drawn uniformly at random from the ensemble of formulae containing n variables and m clauses of size k. This model presents several structural similarities to other ensembles of constraint satisfaction problems, such as k-satisfiability (k-SAT). For many of these ensembles, as the number of constraints per variable grows, the set of solutions shatters into an exponential number of well-separated components. This phenomenon appears to be related to the difficulty of solving random instances of such problems.We prove a complete characterization of this clustering phase transition for random k-XORSAT. In particular we prove that the clustering threshold is sharp and determine its exact location. We prove that the set of solutions has large conductance below this threshold and that each of the clusters has large conductance above the same threshold.Our proof constructs a very sparse basis for the set of solutions (or the subset within a cluster). This construction is achieved through a low complexity iterative algorithm.

Reinforcement learning agents have demonstrated remarkable achievements in simulated environments. Data efficiency poses an impediment to carrying this success over to real environments. The design of data-efficient agents calls for a deeper understanding of information acquisition and representation. We develop concepts and establish a regret bound that together offer principled guidance. The bound sheds light on questions of what information to seek, how to seek that information, and what information to retain. To illustrate concepts, we design simple agents that build on them and present computational results that demonstrate improvements in data efficiency.Other learning paradigms are about minimization; reinforcement learning is about maximization.

The XOR-satisfiability (XORSAT) problem requires finding an assignment of n Boolean variables that satisfy m exclusive OR (XOR) clauses, whereby each clause constrains a subset of the variables. We consider random XORSAT instances, drawn uniformly at random from the ensemble of formulae containing n variables and m clauses of size k. This model presents several structural similarities to other ensembles of constraint satisfaction problems, such as ksatisfiability (k-SAT), hypergraph bicoloring and graph coloring. For many of these ensembles, as the number of constraints per variable grows, the set of solutions shatters into an exponential number of well-separated components. This phenomenon appears to be related to the difficulty of solving random instances of such problems.We prove a complete characterization of this clustering phase transition for random k-XORSAT. In particular, we prove that the clustering threshold is sharp and determine its exact location. We prove that the set of solutions has large conductance below this threshold and that each of the clusters has large conductance above the same threshold.Our proof constructs a very sparse basis for the set of solutions (or the subset within a cluster). This construction is intimately tied to the construction of specific subgraphs of the hypergraph associated with an instance of k-XORSAT. In order to study such subgraphs, we establish novel local weak convergence results for them.

Abstract-Consider the problem of learning the drift coefficient of a stochastic differential equation from a sample path. In this paper, we assume that the drift is parametrized by a highdimensional vector. We address the question of how long the system needs to be observed in order to learn this vector of parameters. We prove a general lower bound on this time complexity by using a characterization of mutual information as time integral of conditional variance, due to Kadota, Zakai, and Ziv. This general lower bound is applied to specific classes of linear and non-linear stochastic differential equations. In the linear case, the problem under consideration is the one of learning a matrix of interaction coefficients. We evaluate our lower bound for ensembles of sparse and dense random matrices. The resulting estimates match the qualitative behavior of upper bounds achieved by computationally efficient procedures.

We introduce the epistemic neural network (ENN) as an interface for uncertainty modeling in deep learning. All existing approaches to uncertainty modeling can be expressed as ENNs, and any ENN can be identified with a Bayesian neural network. However, this new perspective provides several promising directions for future research. Where prior work has developed probabilistic inference tools for neural networks; we ask instead, 'which neural networks are suitable as tools for probabilistic inference?'. We propose a clear and simple metric for progress in ENNs: the KL-divergence with respect to a target distribution. We develop a computational testbed based on inference in a neural network Gaussian process and release our code as a benchmark at https://github.com/deepmind/enn. We evaluate several canonical approaches to uncertainty modeling in deep learning, and find they vary greatly in their performance. We provide insight to the sensitivity of these results and show that our metric is highly correlated with performance in sequential decision problems. Finally, we provide indications that new ENN architectures can improve performance in both the statistical quality and computational cost.1 Epistemic uncertainty relates to knowledge (ancient Greek episteme↔knowledge), as opposed to aleatoric uncertainty relating to chance (Latin alea↔dice) (Kendall and Gal, 2017).Preprint. Under review.