No abstract

The three papers in this section explore the current status of methodologies in population planning as they are being developed and applied at three operational levels: policy formation, program planning, and program implementation. A common theme which emerges from these papers concerns the substantial limitation in the methodologies for providing a rational basis for guiding policy formation, program planning, and implementation. The deficiencies in current methodologies are best reflected in the debates and wide variations of opinions expressed throughout this volume on fundamental issues of population policy and programming, issues that could be examined critically and analytically if the methodologies were adequately developed.

Demographic methods provide an invaluable foundation for population program planning by giving quantitative expression to present and future characteristics of a population. It must be recognized that, while the formulas may be precise, the validity of the outputs are constrained by the quality of input data available and the assumptions required. Fertility projections present special problems because of the multiplicity of factors that can independently influence reproductive performance. The estimation of births averted by family planning programs is particularly tenuous. Population planners must be cognizant of all the dimensions of population change if effective programs are to be developed.