Abstract. Worldwide, groundwater resources are under a constant threat of overexploitation and pollution due to anthropogenic and climatic pressures. For sustainable management and policy making a reliable prediction of groundwater levels for different future scenarios is necessary. Uncertainties are present in these groundwater-level predictions and originate from greenhouse gas scenarios, climate models, conceptual hydro(geo)logical models (CHMs) and groundwater abstraction scenarios. The aim of this study is to quantify the individual uncertainty contributions using an ensemble of 2 greenhouse gas scenarios (representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5), 22 global climate models, 15 alternative CHMs and 5 groundwater abstraction scenarios. This multi-model ensemble approach was applied to a drought-prone study area in Bangladesh. Findings of this study, firstly, point to the strong dependence of the groundwater levels on the CHMs considered. All groundwater abstraction scenarios showed a significant decrease in groundwater levels. If the current groundwater abstraction trend continues, the groundwater level is predicted to decline about 5 to 6 times faster for the future period 2026–2047 compared to the baseline period (1985–2006). Even with a 30 % lower groundwater abstraction rate, the mean monthly groundwater level would decrease by up to 14 m in the southwestern part of the study area. The groundwater abstraction in the northwestern part of Bangladesh has to decrease by 60 % of the current abstraction to ensure sustainable use of groundwater. Finally, the difference in abstraction scenarios was identified as the dominant uncertainty source. CHM uncertainty contributed about 23 % of total uncertainty. The alternative CHM uncertainty contribution is higher than the recharge scenario uncertainty contribution, including the greenhouse gas scenario and climate model uncertainty contributions. It is recommended that future groundwater-level prediction studies should use multi-model and multiple climate and abstraction scenarios.
Abstract. Worldwide, groundwater resources are under a constant threat of overexploitation and pollution due to anthropogenic and climatic pressures. For sustainable management and policy making a reliable prediction of groundwater levels for different future scenarios is necessary. Uncertainties are present in these groundwater level predictions and originate from greenhouse gas scenarios, climate models, conceptual hydro(geo)logical models (CHMs) and groundwater abstraction scenarios. The aim of this study is to quantify the individual uncertainty contributions using an ensemble of 2 greenhouse gas scenarios (representative concentration pathway 4.5 and 8.5), 22 global climate models, 15 alternative CHMs and 5 groundwater abstraction scenarios. This multi-model ensemble approach was applied to a drought prone study area in Bangladesh. Findings of this study, firstly, point at the strong dependence of the groundwater levels on the CHMs considered. All groundwater abstraction scenarios showed a significant decrease in groundwater levels. If the current groundwater abstraction trend continues, the groundwater level is predicted to decline about 5 to 6 times faster for the future period 2026–2047 compared to the baseline period (1985–2006). Even with a 30 % lower groundwater abstraction rate, the mean monthly groundwater level would decrease by up to 14 m in the southwestern part of the study area. The groundwater abstraction in the northwestern part of Bangladesh has to reduce by 60 % of the current abstraction to ensure sustainable use of groundwater. Finally, the difference in abstraction scenarios was identified as the dominant uncertainty source. CHM uncertainty contributed about 23 % of total uncertainty. The alternative CHM uncertainty contribution is higher than the recharge scenario uncertainty contribution, including the greenhouse gas scenario and climate model uncertainty contributions. It is recommended that future groundwater level prediction studies should use multi-model and multiple climate and abstraction scenarios.
Several studies have shown that the perception of horizontal curves can be influenced by an overlapping vertical alignment. A previous two-phase study investigated the hypothesis that a horizontal curve appears flatter when overlapping with a vertical sag curve and sharper when overlapping with a vertical crest curve. The study concluded that the hypothesis was valid. The study also developed several statistical models to estimate the perceived radius of horizontal curves in a combined alignment. This study extends the earlier work by investigating the effect of additional geometric parameters on the perception. The parameters examined include the presence of spiral curves, the length of the spirals, and the position of the vertical curve midpoint relative to the horizontal curve. It was found that (1) driver misperception of the horizontal curvature increases as the radius of the horizontal curve increases, (2) the presence of a spiral curve affects driver perception of the horizontal curvature in the case of crest combination only, (3) the length of the spiral curve has no effect on the perception whether on crest or sag combinations, and (4) while the effect of the position of the vertical curve midpoint relative to the horizontal curve is not statistically significant, it seems that the perception problem appears to diminish as the positive offsets increases.Key words: highway geometric design, visual perception, combined alignment.
An experiment was carried out to evaluate the leaf characteristics and yield performances of mungbean (Vigna radiata L.) under different light levels at the Crop Physiology and Ecology Research Field of Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and Technology University, Dinajpur during March to June 2016. The experiment was laid out in a split plot design with three replications. Three light levels (L 100 -100 % light intensity, L 75 -75 % light intensity and L 50 -50% light intensity) were assigned in the main plots and four varieties (BARl Mung-6, BINA Mung-8, BINA Mung-5 and BU Mug-4) were assigned in subplots. Mosquito nets of different pore size were used for maintaining 75 and 50 percent light intensity. Leaf area was increased due to reduced light levels in all mugbean varieties but the increment was significant in BINA Mung-5 and BINA Mung-8 only at 75% light intensity at 40 days after sowing and only in BARI Mung-6 with L 50 and BU Mug-4 with L 75 and L 50 at 50 days after sowing. Due to reduced light levels, leaf dry weight was affected more in BINA Mung-5 and BU Mug-4 than BARI Mung-6 and BINA Mung-8. Leaf thickness was reduced under shade in all the mungbean varieties, except in BU Mug-4 at 75% light intensity, and the reduction in leaf thickness was mainly due to the reduction in thickness of spongy layer. The palisade layer thickness was influenced insignificantly but spongy layer thickness was increased in BINA Mung-5 at 100% light intensity. The grain yields (t ha , and heavier grains in BARI Mung-6 and BINA Mung-8 contributed to the higher grain yield plant -1 under partial shade condition than in BINA Mung-5 and BU Mug-4.
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