Services sector is one of the important sectors of the economy. It contributes more than half of the GDP and has substantial share in country's exports and employment. In this study we evaluated the factors affecting services sector output growth using annual data from 1975 to 2014 and ARDL method of estimation. Pakistan's break up in two wings in December, 1971 and availability of data on most of the variables after 1975 determined the choice of sample period. Results show foreign trade, government expenditures, market size and population growth are the relevant determinants of services sector output growth in long run. In short run, services sector growth is affected by foreign trade and personal remittances. Diagnostic tests show absence of serial correlation and parameter stability. Based on estimated results, it is recommended that relevant authorities should implement policies that increase services sector output growth if they intend to augment overall economic growth of the country.
The purpose of this research paper is to examine the long run relationship between military expenditure, number of persons in military and economic growth. To fulfill this, the study used ARDL approach for annual time series data from 1990 to 2015. The results show that Pakistan military expenditures are insignificant (military burden for the country is statically insignificant) and number of persons in military are positively and significantly related with GDP growth in long run. The error correction term is negative and significant which shows that short run relationship exists among economic growth, military expenditures and number of army persons. In short run military expenditure and number of persons in military are positively and significantly related with GDP growth but in long run only number of military persons affects economic growth positively and significantly.
Main objective to write this paper was to find out impact of fiscal policy on sectoral growth in Pakistan. Annual data for period 1980-2021 was used from world development indicators of World Bank (2021). ADF and PP unit root test were employed to check the stationarity of all variables. ADRL bound testing was considered as estimation technique because some variables were stationary at level and some were at first difference while no variable was stationary at second difference. Three models were estimated where dependent variables were agriculture, industry and services while independent variables were GDP per capita, total debt services, external balance on goods and services, and gross national expenditures. These most repeated variables are selected from existing empirical literature on impact of fiscal policy over economic growth. All variables related to fiscal policy affected agricultural sector positively and insignificantly except total debt services that has positive and significant impact on agricultural sector. GDP per capita, inflation and total debt services have positive and significant effect on industrial sector while this sector was affected negatively and significantly by external balance of goods and services and gross national expenditures. All explanatory variables showed negative and significant association with services sector except total debt services that has positive and significant relationship with services sector. The error correction terms for agricultural, industrial and services sectors respectively are negative (-3.185, -1.674 and -2.110 respectively) indicated that the system was stable and converged to the equilibrium track following a disturbance. All diagnostic and stability tests satisfied the basic requirements of model suitability. Keywords: Fiscal Policy, GDP, Agriculture, Industry, Services, Inflation
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