This study aims to analyze the comparative performance of pandemic dynamics prediction methods on the island of Java, based on data from March to May 2020 covering the provinces of DKI Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, DI Yogyakarta, and East Java. The prediction uses Knowledge Growing System (KGS) and time series models, namely Single Moving Average (SMA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) computational results, the EMA method produces a lower error rate than the SMA method with 47.94 % on average. The KGS prediction with a Degree of Certainty (DoC) produced a trend analysis that the pandemic dynamics in DKI Jakarta province will decrease gradually if the current policy is still implemented. Whereas in the other provinces, the KGS predicted the pandemic dynamics trends will still increase.

<p class="Abstract"><em>Abstract</em>—This experiment aims to analyze the forecasting of the Indonesian Democracy Index (IDI) in 2019, which uses each province data by the Moving Average method. The parameters used in this experiment refer to data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in 2009-2018. The level of achievement of IDI is measured based on the development and implementation of 3 aspects, 11 variables, and 28 indicators. Experiment purposes to find the average percentage of absolute error MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) for each province and looks for correlations between the three main aspects of forming IDI namely civil liberties, political rights, and democratic institutions. IDI Indonesia's forecasting results in 2019 the IDI has an average value of 68.28 with a MAPE of 4.78%. The results of the correlation between the three aspects of forming the IDI using the Pearson correlation coefficient resulted in the aspect of civil liberties having no correlation with aspects of political rights or aspects of democratic institutions with Pearson values of -0.05 and -0.19. Whereas aspects of political rights correlate with democratic institutions with Pearson's value of 0.48.<em></em></p>Keywords—Forecasting, Indonesian Democracy Index, Moving Average. Pearson Correlation Coefficient