Spodoptera frugiperda is a serious agricultural pest native to tropical and subtropical areas of the Americas. It has a broad host suitability range, disperses rapidly, and has now invaded nearly 100 countries around the world by quickly establishing in the novel ecologies. Based on the native occurrence records and environmental variables, we predicted the potential geographic distribution of S. frugiperda in Central Asia using the MaxEnt model and the ArcGIS. Irrigation is considered to be the main factor for the maize crop production in the Central Asia; therefore, we sought to map the potential spread of S. frugiperda using two modeling approaches together with adjusted rainfall indices and environmental data from this region. The results showed that both approaches (MCP and Obs) could predict the potential distribution of S. frugiperda. The Observation points (Obs) approach gave predicted more conservative projections compared with the Minimum Convex Polygon (MCP) approach. Areas of potential distribution that were consistently identified by the two modeling approaches included Western Afghanistan, Southern Kazakhstan and Southern Turkmenistan. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve test presented herein provided reliable evidence that the MaxEnt model has a high degree of accuracy in predicting the invasion of S. frugiperda in Central Asia.
The snow leopard (Panthera uncia) is a cryptic and rare big cat inhabiting Asia’s remote and harsh elevated areas. Its population has decreased across the globe for various reasons, including human–snow leopard conflicts (HSCs). Understanding the snow leopard’s distribution range and habitat interactions with human/livestock is essential for understanding the ecological context in which HSCs occur and thus gives insights into how to mitigate HSCs. In this study, a MaxEnt model predicted the snow leopard’s potential distribution and analyzed the land use/cover to determine the habitat interactions of snow leopards with human/livestock in Karakoram–Pamir, northern Pakistan. The results indicated an excellent model performance for predicting the species’ potential distribution. The variables with higher contributions to the model were the mean diurnal temperature range (51.7%), annual temperature range (18.5%), aspect (14.2%), and land cover (6.9%). The model predicted approximately 10% of the study area as a highly suitable habitat for snow leopards. Appropriate areas included those at an altitude ranging from 2721 to 4825 m, with a mean elevation of 3796.9 ± 432 m, overlapping between suitable snow leopard habitats and human presence. The human encroachment (human settlements and agriculture) in suitable snow leopard habitat increased by 115% between 2008 and 2018. Increasing encroachment and a clear overlap between snow leopard suitable habitat and human activities, signs of growing competition between wildlife and human/livestock for limited rangeland resources, may have contributed to increasing HSCs. A sound land use plan is needed to minimize overlaps between suitable snow leopard habitat and human presence to mitigate HSCs in the long run.
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