The paper considers a model for the transmission dynamics of a vector-borne disease with nonlinear incidence rate. It is proved that the global dynamics of the disease are completely determined by the basic reproduction number. In order to assess the effectiveness of disease control measures, the sensitivity analysis of the basic reproductive numberR0and the endemic proportions with respect to epidemiological and demographic parameters are provided. From the results of the sensitivity analysis, the model is modified to assess the impact of three control measures; the preventive control to minimize vector human contacts, the treatment control to the infected human, and the insecticide control to the vector. Analytically the existence of the optimal control is established by the use of an optimal control technique and numerically it is solved by an iterative method. Numerical simulations and optimal analysis of the model show that restricted and proper use of control measures might considerably decrease the number of infected humans in a viable way.
It is of great curiosity to observe the effects of prevention methods and the magnitudes of the outbreak including epidemic prediction, at the onset of an epidemic. To deal with COVID-19 Pandemic, an SEIQR model has been designed. Analytical study of the model consists of the calculation of the basic reproduction number and the constant level of disease absent and disease present equilibrium. The model also explores number of cases and the predicted outcomes are in line with the cases registered. By parameters calibration, new cases in Pakistan are also predicted. The number of patients at the current level and the permanent level of COVID-19 cases are also calculated analytically and through simulations. The future situation has also been discussed, which could happen if precautionary restrictions are adopted.
We study the qualitative behavior of a smoking model in which the population is divided into five classes, that is, non-smokers, smokers, people who temporarily quit smoking, people who permanently quit smoking, and people who are associated with illness due to smoking. The global asymptotic stability of the unique positive equilibrium point is presented. More precisely, a graph-theoretic method is used to prove the global stability of the unique positive equilibrium point.
In this article, a mathematical model for hypertensive or diabetic patients open to COVID-19 is considered along with a set of first-order nonlinear differential equations. Moreover, the method of piecewise arguments is used to discretize the continuous system. The mathematical system is said to reveal six equilibria, namely, extinction equilibrium, boundary equilibrium, quarantined-free equilibrium, exposure-free equilibrium, endemic equilibrium, and the equilibrium free from susceptible population. Local stability conditions are developed for our discrete-time mathematical system about each of its equilibrium point. The existence of period-doubling bifurcation and chaos is studied in the absence of isolated population. It is shown that our system will become unstable and experiences the chaos when the quarantined compartment is empty, which is true in biological meanings. The existence of Neimark–Sacker bifurcation is studied for the endemic equilibrium point. Moreover, it is shown numerically that our discrete-time mathematical system experiences the period-doubling bifurcation about its endemic equilibrium. To control the period-doubling bifurcation, Neimark–Sacker bifurcation, a generalized hybrid control methodology is used. Moreover, this model is analyzed along with generalized hybrid control in order to eliminate chaos and oscillation epidemiologically presenting the significance of quarantine in the COVID-19 environment.
We design a deterministic model of pine wilt affliction to analyze the transmission dynamics. We obtain the reproduction number in unequivocal form, and global dynamics of the ailment is totally controlled by this number. With a specific end goal to survey the adequacy of malady control measures, we give the affectability investigation of basic reproduction number R 0 and the endemic levels of diseased classes regarding epidemiological parameters. From the aftereffects of the sensitivity analysis, we adjust the model to evaluate the effect of three control measures: exploitation of the tainted pines, preventive control to limit vector host contacts, and bug spray control to the vectors. Optimal analysis and numerical simulations of the model show that limited and appropriate utilization of control measures may extensively diminish the number of infected pines in a viable way.
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