Poverty alleviation in Indonesia is strongly influenced by other economic variables. The three main factors used to measure its effect on poverty are economic growth, unemployment and inflation. This study aims to examine and analyze the relationship between theoretical and empirical balance between economic growth, unemployment rate and inflation rate with poverty in Indonesia both in the short and long term. The estimation method used is a dynamic econometric model with the cointegration approach and the Error Correction Model (ECM). The results of this study indicate that the equation model used has cointegration relationships and long-term balance between variables. The estimation results show that there is a short-term effect of economic growth, the unemployment rate and inflation on poverty, while in the long term economic growth and the unemployment rate have a significant effect, while inflation is not significant.

Forecasting macroeconomic variables is crucial to measure dynamic changes during uncertain economic conditions. This study examines and analyzes the appropriate and accurate forecasting model to predict macroeconomic variables in Maluku Province. The main variables used are economic growth, unemployment, inflation, and poverty. The modeling used in this study were Bayesian Vector Autoregressions Model and the Univariate Benchmark Model. The results of this study indicate that the two models have different specifications and forecasting directions. The value of the Univariate Benchmark model’s forecast error size is relatively smaller than that of the Bayesian Vector Autoregressions Model. The results of forecasting macroeconomic variables in Maluku Province have a relatively good level of accuracy and are close to the actual value of the sample period. The Error Correction Model test results show that only the Error Correction Term variable significantly affects the poverty level in the short term. Meanwhile, in the long term, the unemployment rate has a significant effect, and the model used is proven valid. The forecasting results from the model show that the Maluku provincial government must maintain the stability of macroeconomic variables, especially the inflation rate and unemployment rate, because they tend to increase in the coming year. It can have an impact on reducing people’s purchasing power.

Tujuan penelitian untuk mengetahui adanya spesialisasi regional antara kabupaten/ kota di Provinsi Maluku. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode analisis indeks spesialisasi regional Krugman. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder kuantitatif yang dipublikasikan oleh lembaga pemerintah yang berkompeten yaitu Badan Pusat Statistik  (BPS)   Provinsi Maluku, Data yang terkumpul kemudian dianalisis baik secara kualitatif ataupun kuantitatif. Analisis kuantitatif dimaksudkan untuk mengetahui dan mengidentifikasi besarnya indeks spesialalisasi regional masing-masing daerah  dengan menggunakan Indeks Spesialisasi Regional Krugman, hasilnya menunjukkan hanya pasangan Kota Ambon dengan Kabupaten Kepulauan Aru dan Seram Bagian Timur yang memiliki indeks spesialisasi regional yang lebih besar dari satu. Artinya pasangan daerah tersebut memiliki spesialisasi regional pada sector ekonomi tertentu.