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We conducted palaeoseismic studies along the North Anatolian fault both east and west of the Marmara Sea to evaluate its recent surface rupture history in relation to the well-documented historical record of earthquakes in the region, and to assess the hazard of this major fault to the city of Istanbul, one of the largest cities in the Middle East. Across the 1912 rupture of the Ganos strand of the North Anatolian fault west of the Marmara Sea, we excavated 26 trenches to resolve slip and constrain the earthquake history on a channel-fan complex that crosses the fault at a high angle. A distinctive, well-sorted fine sand channel that served as a marker unit was exposed in 21 trenches totaling over 300 m in length. Isopach mapping shows that the sand is channelized north of the fault, and flowed as an overflow fan complex across a broad fault scarp to the south. Realignment of the feeder channel thalweg to the fan apex required about 9+1 m of reconstruction. Study of the rupture history in several exposures demonstrates that this displacement occurred as two large events. Analysis of radiocarbon dates places the age of the sand channel as post AD 1655, so we attribute the two surface ruptures to the large regional earthquakes of 1766 and 1912. If each was similar in size, then about 4 -5 m of slip can be attributed to each event, consistent with that reported for 1912 farther east. We also found evidence for two additional surface ruptures after about AD 900, which probably correspond to the large regional earthquakes of 1063 and 1344 (or 1354). These observations suggest fairly periodic occurrence of large earthquakes (RI ¼ c. 283+113 years) for the past millennium, and a rate of c. 16 mm/a if all events experienced similar slip.We excavated six trenches at two sites along the 1999 Izmit rupture to study the past earthquake history along that segment of the North Anatolian fault. One site, located in the township of Köseköy east of Izmit, revealed evidence for three surface ruptures (including 1999) during the past 400 years. The other trench was sited in an Ottoman canal that was excavated (but never completed) in 1591. There is evidence for three large surface rupturing events in the upper 2 m of alluvial fill within the canal at that site, located only a few kilometres from the Köseköy site.

[1] The Ganos fault is the westernmost segment of the North Anatolian Fault that experienced the Mw = 7.4 earthquake of 9 August 1912. The earthquake revealed 45-km-long of surface ruptures inland, trending N70 E, and 5.5 m of maximum right lateral offset near Güzelköy. The long-term deformation of the fault is clearly expressed by several pull-apart basins and sag ponds, pressure and shutter ridges and offset streams. In parallel with detailed geomorphologic investigations, we measured co-seismic and cumulative displacements along the fault, and selected the Güzelköy site for paleoseismology. A microtopographic survey at the site yields 10.5 AE 0.5 m and 35.4 AE 1.5 m cumulative lateral offsets of stream channels and geomorphologic features. Seven paleoseismic parallel and cross-fault trenches document successive faulting events and provide the timing of past earthquakes on the Ganos fault segment. Radiocarbon dating of successive colluvial wedges in trench T1, and the fresh scarplet above (probably 1912 surface rupture)Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union 1 of 26 indicate the occurrence of three faulting events since the 14th century. Parallel trenches (3, 5, 6 and 7) expose paleo-channels and show a cumulative right-lateral offset of 16.5 AE 1.5 m next to the fault, and 21.3 AE 1.5 m total channel deflection. Radiocarbon dating of past channel units and fault scarp-related colluvial deposits imply an average 17 +/À 5 mm/year slip rate and 323 AE 142 years recurrence interval of large earthquakes during the last 1000 years on the Ganos fault. The succession of past faulting events and inferred slip rate west of the Marmara Sea provide more constraint on the long-term faulting behavior in the seismic gap of the North Anatolian Fault and may contribute to a better seismic hazard assessment in the Istanbul region.

IntroductionPaleoseismology is a powerful technique to study the earthquake history and potential of active faults. Previous paleoseismology studies along normal fault systems have provided important information regarding the seismotectonic behaviour, timing, slip rates, size, and intervals of past earthquakes (

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