In this paper, the predictive value of geopolitical risk (GPR) for the return volatility of Islamic stocks in Indonesia and Malaysia is examined. GPR data, whether global or country-specific, heighten the return volatility of Islamic stocks in both countries, albeit with a greater impact on Indonesia. Additional analyses show improved out-of-sample forecast gains with the inclusion of GPR data in the predictive model of the return volatility of Islamic stocks.

This study tests for the validity of the twin-deficit hypothesis in Nigeria for the period 1981 – 2018 and further seeks to ascertain the role of macroeconomic fundamentals in driving this hypothesis using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. With evidence from granger causality test, the results obtained for the NARDL model support the validation of the twin-deficit hypothesis for the Nigerian economy. As long-run equilibrium exists, it was further established that the twin deficits were majorly driven by the degrees of financial and trade openness in Nigeria as no substantial shock effects of the twin deficits were traceable to any of the macroeconomic fundamentals. It is therefore recommended that policy makers in Nigeria should properly sequence the degree of economic openness to ensure the overall health of the economy.

This study revisits the analysis of the Dutch disease implication of China-Africa trade for Africa’s non-mineral resources sectors; specifically, manufacturing and agricultural sectors, while focusing on the trade relationship between China and 27 African countries for the period of 19years, 2001 to 2019. This prompted an econometric analysis with the use of two-step dynamic (difference and system) panel Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) models, which was also complemented with dynamic least squares panel econometric regression. The preliminary analysis revealed that Ethiopia is the largest African trading partner with China, with an average of about 21percent China-Ethiopia trade ratio, while Botswana has the least trade relation with China, with 1.5percent Botswana-China trade ratio. The result of our econometric analyses suggests that higher China-Africa trade has the potential to reduce Africa’s manufacturing value-added. In other words, China-Africa trade is not causing Dutch disease in Africa but has the potential to cause Dutch disease in the future. Furthermore, the result suggests that higher China-Africa trade has the potential to increase Africa’s agricultural sector productivity. This implies that China-Africa trade has no tendency of causing Dutch disease in the agricultural sector. Our results are robust to different data structures for the dynamic GMM model.