No abstract

This article is founded on the assumption that cluster analysis can be used to complement regressionbased techniques to obtain further improvement in systematic understanding of the nexus of politics, economics, and conflict. It assumes such variables form part of a yet to be understood, non-linear, timedependent interactive system. Cluster analysis is used to classify entities into groups and aims toward explanations based on characteristics cutting across the objects in which they are embedded; thus, the analysis seeks a more compelling account of the complex linkages between and among economic, political, and conflict-related variables. Cross-sectional data for 1967, 1974, 1981, 1988, and 1995 from the Dataset on National Attributes is used in the cluster analysis. The data analysis identifies clusters of states based on a range of characteristics. As expected within a time-dependent system, there is evidence of consistent clustering of countries within and across years, along with evidence of change. Several clusters, such as the advanced states, are very stable and indicate patterns that should be explored further with regression analysis.

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The criticism of James, Solberg and Wolfson (JSW) (1999) by Oneal and Russett (OR) is not responsive to the methodologica] issues at stake. JSW argued that war is an endogenous feature of the world political and economic system. If its causes are to be measured, it must be as a structural equation in a simultaneous system. Wedded to the idea that “democracies never fight each other,” OR rely on a single equation to justify their view. JSW claim that such an equation may be an ad hoc reduced form with no causal implications unless the equation is explicitly identified as a structural equation. JSW expand the model to explain democracy and conflict as two endogenous variables. JSW do not claim to have discovered the true relationships between these variables by their minimal expansion of the structural relation. They do show that unless these (and other) variables are treated as part of a system, the results are unstable, contradictory, of minimal size and not a reliable guide to public policy.Peace-democracy, International relations, Simultaneous system, Identification problem,

A nonlinear dynamic model is presented that reconciles balance-of-power and preponderance-of-power theories of international conflict in terms of the interaction of economic and political constraints. It is shown that the apparent paradox and complexity of conflict trajectories arise as much from the nonlinear nature of the system as from the multiplicity of causes. Convergent, explosive, oscillating, and chaotic regimes arise from the model depending on the choice of parameters.