The article assesses the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the Indonesian economy and the influence that repercussions from the pandemic have had on the country's long-term development goals and objectives. The article used backcasting approach to link expected development objectives and targets with current state of social and economic conditions. Results demonstrated a gap between long-term and current economic performance, attributable largely to the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the economy and society. A drastic decline in aggregate demand due to contraction in household and corporate expenditure, investment, and exports sparked a surge in open unemployment and underemployment. While swift and wide-ranging government response helped to attenuate the impact of the crisis on the economy and vulnerable sections of society, COVID-19 pandemic impact compounded existing fundamental problems facing the Indonesian economy including de-industrialization, wide urban-rural, East-West, inter-regional digital divide; unemployment and underemployment; weak human resource development; low participation in global value chains; and low education effectiveness. Policy recommendations to nudge the economy and society back to its long-term development trajectory include initiatives to ABOUT THE AUTHOR Muyanja Ssenyonga, Jameaba, is an economist holding a PhD in economics from Gadjah Mada University (GMU), Yogyakarta. Research interests include cross-cutting topics including labor relations, Poverty and Inequality, financial stability and financial inclusion. Publications include but not limited to financial inclusion and financial stability, poverty and income inequality, and labor relations, and banking and digitalization. Professional experience includes serving as a visiting lecturer and researcher, Master Program in Public Administration (MAP-GMU), research fellow in Pavia University, Lombardy, Italy (spring 2016); Research fellowship South-South Cooperation, Santiago, Chile (spring 2013). The research on imperatives for the post COVID-19 pandemic Indonesian economy builds on previous research experience on the intersection of digitalization, financial institutions performance, educational effectiveness, and labor relations. Results underscore the fact that to attain sustainable effectiveness and competitiveness, it is imperative for economies to adopt and align their practices, procedures and institutions with emerging trends and drivers of best-practice performance.
The research investigates the determinants and impact of bank credit on output in the food crops and fisheries sub sectors; whether or not there is a significant difference in the risk on bank credit and output in the two sub sectors, and whether or not there is a relationship between risk obtaining in the two sub sectors. The results indicate the positive and significant influence of bank credit on food crops output, but a positive and insignificant influence on fisheries output, which unequivocally vindicates government intervention in credit disbursement to agriculture. The influence of banking deregulation on bank credit supply is shown to differ between the two sub sectors, for while it registers expected positive sign in the fisheries sub sector, it produces negative and insignificant influence in the food crops sub sector. Bank reserve requirements has a negative influence on bank credit extended to the fisheries sub sector, while it induces a positive and significant influence in the food crops sub sector. The 1997 economic crisis causes an autonomous contraction of bank credit to the food crops sub sector, but accentuates it in the fisheries sub sector. The food crops and fisheries sub sectors register significant influence of rate of interest rate on bank credit on bank credit supply. Obstacles to credit disbursement to the two sub sectors are presented, followed by policy implications deemed necessary to improve the credit situation in the agricultural sector.
The article investigates the effect bank credit extended to the forestry sub-sector to the sub sector's output, and wether banking deregulation and the economic crisis have any impact on such a relationship. research findings shows hat bank credit is found to have positive influence on forestry output. bank credit to the forestry sub-sector, paradoxically continues to rise in the wake of the economic crisis,before it plumments. there is also evidence of an augmenting effect of banking deregulation on forestry output, proof that deregulation indeed works. the economic crisis however, is found to have led to a tumultuos decline in output as expected. policy implications were drawn basing on research findings.
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