BackgroundHuman exposure to polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) flame retardants has increased exponentially over the last three decades. Animal and human studies suggest that PBDEs may disrupt thyroid function. Although thyroid hormone (TH) of maternal origin plays an essential role in normal fetal brain development, there is a paucity of human data regarding associations between exposure to PBDEs and maternal TH levels during pregnancy.ObjectivesOur goal was to determine whether PBDE serum concentrations are associated with TH levels in pregnant women.MethodsWe measured the concentration of 10 PBDE congeners, free thyroxine (T4), total T4, and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) in 270 pregnant women around the 27th week of gestation.ResultsSerum concentrations of individual PBDE congeners with detection frequencies > 50% (BDEs 28, 47, 99, 100, and 153) and their sum (∑PBDEs) were inversely associated with TSH levels. Decreases in TSH ranged between 10.9% [95% confidence interval (CI), −20.6 to 0.0] and 18.7% (95% CI, −29.2 to −4.5) for every 10-fold increase in the concentration of individual congeners. Odds of subclinical hyperthyroidism (low TSH but normal T4) were also significantly elevated in participants in the highest quartile of ∑PBDEs and BDEs 100 and 153 relative to those in the first quartile. Associations between PBDEs and free and total T4 were not statistically significant. Results were not substantially altered after the removal of outliers and were independent of the method used to adjust for blood lipid levels and to express ∑PBDEs.ConclusionsResults suggest that exposure to PBDEs is associated with lower TSH during pregnancy. Findings may have implications for maternal health and fetal development.

BackgroundDuring the last decades, dengue viruses have spread throughout the Americas region, with an increase in the number of severe forms of dengue. The surveillance system in Guadeloupe (French West Indies) is currently operational for the detection of early outbreaks of dengue. The goal of the study was to improve this surveillance system by assessing a modelling tool to predict the occurrence of dengue epidemics few months ahead and thus to help an efficient dengue control.MethodsThe Box-Jenkins approach allowed us to fit a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model of dengue incidence from 2000 to 2006 using clinical suspected cases. Then, this model was used for calculating dengue incidence for the year 2007 compared with observed data, using three different approaches: 1 year-ahead, 3 months-ahead and 1 month-ahead. Finally, we assessed the impact of meteorological variables (rainfall, temperature and relative humidity) on the prediction of dengue incidence and outbreaks, incorporating them in the model fitting the best.ResultsThe 3 months-ahead approach was the most appropriate for an effective and operational public health response, and the most accurate (Root Mean Square Error, RMSE = 0.85). Relative humidity at lag-7 weeks, minimum temperature at lag-5 weeks and average temperature at lag-11 weeks were variables the most positively correlated to dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, meanwhile rainfall was not. The predictive power of SARIMA models was enhanced by the inclusion of climatic variables as external regressors to forecast the year 2007. Temperature significantly affected the model for better dengue incidence forecasting (p-value = 0.03 for minimum temperature lag-5, p-value = 0.02 for average temperature lag-11) but not humidity. Minimum temperature at lag-5 weeks was the best climatic variable for predicting dengue outbreaks (RMSE = 0.72).ConclusionTemperature improves dengue outbreaks forecasts better than humidity and rainfall. SARIMA models using climatic data as independent variables could be easily incorporated into an early (3 months-ahead) and reliably monitoring system of dengue outbreaks. This approach which is practicable for a surveillance system has public health implications in helping the prediction of dengue epidemic and therefore the timely appropriate and efficient implementation of prevention activities.

Objective To evaluate the association between antibiotic treatment for urinary tract infection (UTI) and severe adverse outcomes in elderly patients in primary care. Design Retrospective population based cohort study. Setting Clinical Practice Research Datalink (2007-15) primary care records linked to hospital episode statistics and death records in England. Participants 157 264 adults aged 65 years or older presenting to a general practitioner with at least one diagnosis of suspected or confirmed lower UTI from November 2007 to May 2015. Main outcome measures Bloodstream infection, hospital admission, and all cause mortality within 60 days after the index UTI diagnosis. Results Among 312 896 UTI episodes (157 264 unique patients), 7.2% (n=22 534) did not have a record of antibiotics being prescribed and 6.2% (n=19 292) showed a delay in antibiotic prescribing. 1539 episodes of bloodstream infection (0.5%) were recorded within 60 days after the initial UTI. The rate of bloodstream infection was significantly higher among those patients not prescribed an antibiotic (2.9%; n=647) and those recorded as revisiting the general practitioner within seven days of the initial consultation for an antibiotic prescription compared with those given a prescription for an antibiotic at the initial consultation (2.2% v 0.2%; P=0.001). After adjustment for covariates, patients were significantly more likely to experience a bloodstream infection in the deferred antibiotics group (adjusted odds ratio 7.12, 95% confidence interval 6.22 to 8.14) and no antibiotics group (8.08, 7.12 to 9.16) compared with the immediate antibiotics group. The number needed to harm (NNH) for occurrence of bloodstream infection was lower (greater risk) for the no antibiotics group (NNH=37) than for the deferred antibiotics group (NNH=51) compared with the immediate antibiotics group. The rate of hospital admissions was about double among cases with no antibiotics (27.0%) and deferred antibiotics (26.8%) compared with those prescribed immediate antibiotics (14.8%; P=0.001). The risk of all cause mortality was significantly higher with deferred antibiotics and no antibiotics than with immediate antibiotics at any time during the 60 days follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio 1.16, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.27 and 2.18, 2.04 to 2.33, respectively). Men older than 85 years were particularly at risk for both bloodstream infection and 60 day all cause mortality. Conclusions In elderly patients with a diagnosis of UTI in primary care, no antibiotics and deferred antibiotics were associated with a significant increase in bloodstream infection and all cause mortality compared with immediate antibiotics. In the context of an increase of Escherichia coli bloodstream infections in England, early initiation of recommended first line antibiotics for UTI in the older population is advocated.

ObjectivesTo investigate the teaching of antimicrobial stewardship (AS) in undergraduate healthcare educational degree programmes in the United Kingdom (UK).Participants and MethodsCross-sectional survey of undergraduate programmes in human and veterinary medicine, dentistry, pharmacy and nursing in the UK. The main outcome measures included prevalence of AS teaching; stewardship principles taught; estimated hours apportioned; mode of content delivery and teaching strategies; evaluation methodologies; and frequency of multidisciplinary learning.Results80% (112/140) of programmes responded adequately. The majority of programmes teach AS principles (88/109, 80.7%). ‘Adopting necessary infection prevention and control precautions’ was the most frequently taught principle (83/88, 94.3%), followed by 'timely collection of microbiological samples for microscopy, culture and sensitivity’ (73/88, 82.9%) and ‘minimisation of unnecessary antimicrobial prescribing’ (72/88, 81.8%). The ‘use of intravenous administration only to patients who are severely ill, or unable to tolerate oral treatment’ was reported in ~50% of courses. Only 32/88 (36.3%) programmes included all recommended principles.DiscussionAntimicrobial stewardship principles are included in most undergraduate healthcare and veterinary degree programmes in the UK. However, future professionals responsible for using antimicrobials receive disparate education. Education may be boosted by standardisation and strengthening of less frequently discussed principles.