Predictive regressions are subject to two small sample biases: the coefficient estimate is biased if the predictor is endogenous, and asymptotic standard errors in the case of overlapping periods are biased downward. Both biases work in the direction of making t‐ratios too large so that standard inference may indicate predictability even if none is present. Using annual returns since 1872 and monthly returns since 1927 we estimate empirical distributions by randomizing residuals in the VAR representation of the variables. The estimated biases are large enough to affect inference in practice, and should be accounted for when studying predictability.

Predictive regressions are subject to two small sample biases: the coefficient estimate is biased if the predictor is endogenous, and asymptotic standard errors in the case of overlapping periods are biased downward. Both biases work in the direction of making t‐ratios too large so that standard inference may indicate predictability even if none is present. Using annual returns since 1872 and monthly returns since 1927 we estimate empirical distributions by randomizing residuals in the VAR representation of the variables. The estimated biases are large enough to affect inference in practice, and should be accounted for when studying predictability.

Multiple weekly doses of LB03002 appeared safe and well tolerated. Comparable GH bioavailability and sustained IGF-I elevations support the use of once-weekly LB03002 to replace daily GH therapy.

Recent research suggests that stock returns are predictable from fundamentals such as dividend yield, and that the degree of predictability rises with the length of the horizon over which return is measured. This paper investigates the magnitude of two sources of small ssmple bias in these reaults. First, it is a standard result in econometrics that regression on the lagged value of the dependent variable is biased in finite samples. Since a fundamental such as the price/dividend ratio is a statistical proxy for lagged price, predictive regressions are potentially subject to a corresponding small sample bias. This may create the illusion that one can buy low and sell high in the sample even if the relationship is useless for forecasting. Second, multiperiod returns are positively autocorrelated by construction, raising the possibility of spurious regression. Standard errors which are computed from the asymptotic formula may not be large enough in small samples. A set of Monte Carlo experiments are presented in which data are generated by a version of the present value model in which the discount rate is constant so returns are not in fact predictable. We show that a number of the characteristica of the historical results can be replicated simply by the combined effects of the two small sample biases.

We present the new observations of postoperative microcystic macular edema (MME) as a mild form of cystoid macular lesions (CMLs) after standard phacoemulsification.To report the incidence, risk factors, and pathophysiology of MME compared to conventional concept of pseudophakic cystoid macular edema (CME), we retrospectively reviewed patients’ records. Pseudophakic CMLs were defined as any cystic fluid collections that were newly formed after cataract surgery, confirmed by preoperative and postoperative optical coherence tomography (OCT) examinations. CMLs were classified into 2 groups, which are CME and MME, according to the change the central retinal thickness. The dataset consisted of 316 patients (mean age, 67.52 ± 12.95 years; range, 42–87 years). Topical nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) were administered in 197 eyes during the perioperative period; 147 eyes were not treated. CMLs were present in 22 out of 344 (6.39%) eyes. Six of 344 eyes (1.74%) had CME and 16 of 344 eyes (4.65%) had MME. The incidence of MME significantly decreased in the group of patients treated with topical NSAIDs (P = .039), while the incidence of CME was not different in both groups (P = .408). All of the patients with MME were experienced improvement with only topical NSAIDs. However, 67% (4/6) of patients with CME did not improve with topical NSAIDs alone and needed additional treatments. Pseudophakic MMEs were more likely to have a history of diabetic retinopathy, epiretinal membrane, and eyes were not treated with topical NSAID.This study showed a wide clinical spectrum of CMLs. MME has not been included in the conventional definition of pseudophakic CME. Topical NSAIDs could decrease the CML incidence. People with risk factors for CML should use topical NSAIDs and undergo regular follow-up OCT examinations.