Background: Gold exchange-traded funds, since introduction, are primarily aimed at tracking the price of physical gold in the financial market. This, a category of exchange-traded funds, whose units represent physical gold, is traded on exchanges like any other financial instrument. In the Indian financial market, gold exchange traded funds were introduced a decade ago to facilitate ordinary households' participation in the bullion market. They were also designed to assist in the price discovery mechanism of the bullion market. Presentation of the hypothesis: In this paper, it is attempted to check if one of the constituents of price discovery mechanism, informational efficiency, has been achieved in gold exchange-traded funds' market. Information efficiency becomes evident only when all available information is reflected in the market price of the instrument. Testing the hypothesis: Therefore, in order to assess the weak-form efficiency of the gold exchange-traded funds market, the daily returns of five gold exchangetraded funds traded on the Indian Stock Exchange over the period March 22, 2010, to August 28, 2015, were used. The non-parametric runs test, the parametric serial correlation test, and the augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test are employed.

The Taguchi's orthogonal array is based on a mathematical model of factorial designs. This paper investigates the effects of four parameters in Probability of Default (PD) using BlackScholes model (BSM) for call option at one period by considering asset value , firm's debt , expected growth and the volatility . The main aim is to determine which parameters affect mostly on PD of a firm. The experiment is based on the orthogonal array L9 in which the four parameters are varied at three levels. Finally, the ANOM is used to describe the best combination and ANOVA is implemented to measure the contribution of the given independent variables.

The probability of default (PD) is the essential credit risks in the finance world. It provides an estimate of the likelihood that a borrower will be unable to meet its debt obligations. Purpose: This paper computes the probability of default (PD) of utilizing marketbased data which outlines their convenience for monetary reconnaissance. There are numerous models that provide assistance to analyze credit risks, for example, the probability of default, migration risk, and loss gain default. Every one of these models is vital for estimating credit risk, however, the most imperative model is PD, i.e., employed in this paper. Design/methodology/approach: In this paper, the Black-Scholes Model for European Call Option (BSM-CO) is utilized to gauge the PD of the Jammu and Kashmir Bank, Bank of Baroda, Indian Overseas Bank, and Canara Bank. The information has been taken from a term of 5 years on a yearly premise from 2012 to 2016. This paper demonstrates how d 2 in Black Scholes displayed help in assessing the PD of the various firms. Findings: The fundamental findings of this paper are whether there are any mean contrasts between the mean differences of PD between the organizations utilizing ANOVA and the Tukey strategy.

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This study focuses on the Indian gold futures market where primary participants hold sentimental value for the underlying asset and are globally ranked number two in terms of the largest private holdings in the physical form. The trade of gold futures relates to seasons, festivity, and government policy. So, the paper will discuss seasonality and intervention in the analysis. Due to non-constant variance, we will also use the standard variance stabilization transformation method and the ARIMA/GARCH modelling method to compare the forecast performance on the gold futures prices. The results from the analysis show that while the standard variance transformation method may provide better point forecast values, the ARIMA/GARCH modelling method provides much shorter forecast intervals. The empirical results of this study which rationalise the effect of seasonality in the Indian bullion derivative market have not been reported in literature.