In January 2017, hundreds of fires in Mediterranean Chile burnt more than 5000 km, an area nearly 14 times the 40-year mean. We contextualize these fires in terms of estimates of global fire intensity using MODIS satellite record, and provide an overview of the climatic factors and recent changes in land use that led to the active fire season and estimate the impact of fire emissions to human health. The primary fire activity in late January coincided with extreme fire weather conditions including all-time (1979-2017) daily records for the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and maximum temperature, producing some of the most energetically intense fire events on Earth in the last 15-years. Fire activity was further enabled by a warm moist growing season in 2016 that interrupted an intense drought that started in 2010. The land cover in this region had been extensively modified, with less than 20% of the original native vegetation remaining, and extensive plantations of highly flammable exotic Pinus and Eucalyptus species established since the 1970s. These plantations were disproportionally burnt (44% of the burned area) in 2017, and associated with the highest fire severities, as part of an increasing trend of fire extent in plantations over the past three decades. Smoke from the fires exposed over 9.5 million people to increased concentrations of particulate air pollution, causing an estimated 76 premature deaths and 209 additional admissions to hospital for respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. This study highlights that Mediterranean biogeographic regions with expansive Pinus and Eucalyptus plantations and associated rural depopulation are vulnerable to intense wildfires with wide ranging social, economic, and environmental impacts, which are likely to become more frequent due to longer and more extreme wildfire seasons.
Heat-related extreme events, such as wildfires and heatwaves, have historically imposed a burden on Australian society, and according to rigorous and robust scientific literature, it is expected that there will be increases in frequency, intensity and duration of these types of natural hazards. Within Australia, wildfires and heatwaves are currently responsible for more than 60% of all direct fatalities related to natural hazards, and it is highly likely that this is an underestimation as some health impacts are not routinely quantified (e.g. premature death related to air pollution from wildfire smoke exposure). Deaths attributable to heatwaves and fire smoke pollution are more commonly due to exacerbations of pre-existing health conditions, than to specific direct impacts such as heat stroke. Some groups, such as the elderly, infants and those with pre-existing conditions, tend to be more vulnerable to these impacts. Furthermore, evidence suggests that there are synergistic additional impacts when exposed to high temperature and air pollution, and that probably health impacts are considerably underestimated in the case of some specific groups such as those with occupational chronic exposure to fire smoke. To avoid increases in public health effects, society at all levels needs to increase its adaptive capacity. Measures need to be taken from a planning and management perspective through to community response at a local level, adequately focusing resources to include vulnerable sectors and population groups.
This paper is among the first to report on the full integration of basin-scale models that include projections of the demand and supply of water and energy for residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural sector users. We link two widely used regional planning models that allow one to study the impact of rising climate variability on water and electricity use in Sacramento, California. Historic data combined with the current energy and water system configuration was used to assess the implications of changes in temperature and precipitation. Climate simulations suggest that electricity imports to the region would increase during hot dry spells, when regional power production is most constrained. In particular, regional imports of electricity would increase over 35 % in hot dry years, assuming a 4°C increase in average temperature and a 25 % decrease in average precipitation.Climatic Change
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