No abstract

⎯In conditions of intense spatial transformation of the Moscow agglomeration (MA) driven by housing construction and migration from Russian regions, study of how these processes are interrelated has become an urgent task. In the article a new model of spatial equilibrium in MA is developed. Model includes three blocks: (1) a spatial equilibrium model for the labor and housing markets in the MA; (2) a model of dynamic equilibrium between migration and housing construction in the MA; (3) a model of housing construction distribution by zones of the MA. In block 1, for three zones of the MA (the central business district, urban zone, and zone of new construction) the equilibrium values of population, employment, and wages are determined with allowance for commuting. In block 2, equilibrium is determined between the migration level and housing construction in the MA, which replicates the gap in real incomes between the MA and other Russian regions. Deviation from equilibrium leads to an adjustment of incentives for migration and a change in its level restores equilibrium. In block 3, it is shown that the behavior of developers owing to land price adjustment determines the location of construction by the MA zones. Despite the generic nature of the model, it is able to reproduce a number of trends in the spatial evolution of the MA, including the transition from an extensive stage of development with sprawling construction and hyperdensity of the center to an intense stage with in-depth development of the main "body" of the city. The model stresses how tightly related the processes in the largest agglomeration of the country and the national settlement system are. The model shows how the political and economic processes, via changes in rent and agglomeration economies, change incentives for work, living, and housing construction in different zones of the agglomeration and determine the fate of urban territories. The model also describes the influence of the internal structure of the MA on interregional migration. By increasing construction, especially of affordable housing in greenfield projects at the periphery of the agglomeration, the city implicitly accepts a decision to increase migration affecting Russia's national settlement system.

The aim of the study is to identify patterns of localization of housing construction and structural changes in the Moscow agglomeration under the influence of transport accessibility from new housing. The research method is based on the monitoring of multistory housing projects. The transport accessibility was analyzed with the help of Google Maps service, which allows to determine the travel time by car and public transport from housing projects to the center of Moscow. The key factor determining the location of housing projects is a compromise between the transport accessibility of the Moscow labor market, which is largely concentrated in the center of the capital, and the cost of housing. The urge to minimize the travel time causes structural changes in different zones of agglomeration. The reorganization of the former industrial ring along the Third Ring Road is stimulated by the good transport accessibility of the city center. Travel time by car does not exceed 0.5 hours for 77% of residents of new buildings in this zone. In the 10 km zone outside the Moscow Ring Road, the travel time to the center by car does not exceed 1 hour for 94% of the residents of new buildings. The combination of acceptable travel time to the center of the capital and inexpensive housing costs leads to the development of inter-highway intervals. Travel time to the center by public transport does not exceed 1.5 hours for 38% of residents at a distance of 10-30 km from the Moscow Ring Road. The need to ensure for residents the accessibility of the center leads to the strengthening of the axes of settlements along the main transport corridors. On the periphery of the agglomeration, the increase in travel time (more than 2 hours) leads to the orientation of residents mainly to the local labor markets.

Based on the data on addresses of real estate buyers, we assess the investment activity of residents of Russian regions and cities in the primary housing market of the Moscow capital region (MCR) compared to the activity of their labor migrations to the MCR. The objects of our analysis are 149 Russian cities and 80 remaining parts of regions. This enabled us to analyze the specifics of migration and investment behavior for the first time, taking into account differentiation between cities and rural areas, between size classes of cities, and between individual large cities. This enabled us to fill in the gap in assessing the mobility of inputs, i.e., capital and labor. A sharp contrast between settlements of different sizes was revealed in the nature of their interaction with the MCR agglomeration. The intensity of labor migration to the Moscow agglomeration is decreasing rapidly and monotonically with increasing settlement size. The activity of nonresident homebuyers, depending on the population of the city of their residence, varies nonmonotonically, reaching its highest level for cities with populations of 250000-500000 people for Moscow's housing market and 100000-500000 people in Moscow oblast. Small towns and rural areas (except for the Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets autonomous okrugs) are a source of labor for the Moscow agglomeration and show low investment activity in the capital's housing market. Million-plus cities provide a negligible inflow of labor migrants and are characterized by moderate activity in the MCR housing market, close to the national average. Compared to the premium housing and labor market of the City of Moscow, investment and migration flows to Moscow oblast are shifted to smaller settlements and lower-income regions. The attraction of Moscow oblast rapidly decreases with distance, extending to first-and second-order neighbors, while Moscow's influence is nationwide.