The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the hydrology of two small paired catchments in northern Uruguay. The control and treatment catchments (69 and 108 ha, respectively) were monitored for a three-year pretreatment period during which the land use was grassland with livestock grazing. Subsequently, the treatment catchment was planted (57% afforested) with loblolly pine (Pinus taeda). The objectives of the modeling study were to simulate the hydrologic response of the two catchments during the pretreatment period and predict the hydrologic effects of converting the native pasture to pine plantation. SWAT models of the two catchments were calibrated and validated using data measured during the pretreatment period. The model predicted outflows from the catchments reasonably well as compared to observed outflows during the years with above average rainfall (5% to −13% error). Model efficiency (E) for daily outflow volumes was greater than 0.71, indicating a good fit between simulated and observed results. A 33-year continuous simulation was performed on three land uses: grassland with livestock grazing, grassland without grazing, and pine treatment. The conversion of the catchments from the baseline pasture condition with grazing resulted in a predicted reduction in average annual water yield from the catchments of 15% for native grassland without grazing, and 23% for pine trees. A maximum predicted hydrologic effect was estimated by maximizing the model parameter that increases the ability of pine trees to withdraw water from the ground. For this condition, the model predicted a 30% reduction in mean annual water yield from the afforested catchment.

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This study investigates the impact of climate and land use change on the magnitude and timing of streamflow and sediment yield in a snow‐dominated mountainous watershed in Salt Lake County, Utah using a scenario approach and the Hydrological Simulation Program — FORTRAN model for the 2040s (year 2035–2044) and 2090s (year 2085–2094). The climate scenarios were statistically and dynamically downscaled from global climate models. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes were estimated in two ways — from a regional planning scenario and from a deterministic model. Results indicate the mean daily streamflow in the Jordan River watershed will increase by an amount ranging from 11.2% to 14.5% in the 2040s and from 6.8% to 15.3% in the 2090s. The respective increases in sediment load in the 2040s and 2090s is projected to be 6.7% and 39.7% in the canyons and about 7.4% to 14.2% in the Jordan valley. The historical 50th percentile timing of streamflow and sediment load is projected to be shifted earlier by three to four weeks by mid‐century and four to eight weeks by late‐century. The projected streamflow and sediment load results establish a nonlinear relationship with each other and are highly sensitive to projected climate change. The predicted changes in streamflow and sediment yield will have implications for water supply, flood control and stormwater management.

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