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Background No well validated and contemporaneous tools for personalized prognostication of gastric adenocarcinoma exist. This study aimed to derive and validate a prognostic model for overall survival after surgery for gastric adenocarcinoma using a large national dataset. Methods National audit data from England and Wales were used to identify patients who underwent a potentially curative gastrectomy for adenocarcinoma of the stomach. A total of 2931 patients were included and 29 clinical and pathological variables were considered for their impact on survival. A non-linear random survival forest methodology was then trained and validated internally using bootstrapping with calibration and discrimination (time-dependent area under the receiver operator curve (tAUC)) assessed. Results The median survival of the cohort was 69 months, with a 5-year survival of 53.2 per cent. Ten variables were found to influence survival significantly and were included in the final model, with the most important being lymph node positivity, pT stage and achieving an R0 resection. Patient characteristics including ASA grade and age were also influential. On validation the model achieved excellent performance with a 5-year tAUC of 0.80 (95 per cent c.i. 0.78 to 0.82) and good agreement between observed and predicted survival probabilities. A wide spread of predictions for 3-year (14.8–98.3 (i.q.r. 43.2–84.4) per cent) and 5-year (9.4–96.1 (i.q.r. 31.7–73.8) per cent) survival were seen. Conclusions A prognostic model for survival after a potentially curative resection for gastric adenocarcinoma was derived and exhibited excellent discrimination and calibration of predictions.

In this nested case-control study of BO, male gender, increasing age, and increasing use of asthma drugs were associated with progression to OAC.

Background: Varying rates of oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) complicating Barrett's oesophagus (BO) have been reported. Recent studies and meta-analyses suggest a lower incidence, questioning the value of endoscopic surveillance. Aim: We aimed to retrospectively examine the rate of OAC, risk factors and causes of death in a prospectively recruited BO cohort. Methods: Data from patients with BO from a cohort from 1982-2007 were studied. Patients were subdivided into surveyed, failed to attend surveillance and unfit for surveillance. Standardised mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated for common causes of death. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine which factors were associated with progression to OAC. Results: In total, 671 BO patients (61% male) were studied; 37 (76% male) were diagnosed with OAC. OAC incidence was 0.47% per annum and stable across three decades (1982-1991 0.56%, 1992-2001 0.46%, 2002-2012 0.41% (p ¼ 0.8)). All-cause mortality was increased for the whole cohort (SMR 163(95% CI 145-183)). Mortality from OAC appeared higher in patients who failed to attend surveillance (SMR 3216(95% CI 1543-5916)) compared with surveyed (SMR 1753(95% CI 933-2998)) and those unfit for surveillance due to co-morbidity (SMR 440(95% CI 143-1025)). Multivariable analysis identified low-grade dysplasia ), p ¼ 0.005) and length of BO (HR 1.2(95% (1.1-1.3)), p < 0.001)) as associated with OAC. Conclusions: Progression to OAC appeared stable over three decades at 0.47% per annum. Patients with BO had a modest increase in all-cause mortality and a large increase in OAC mortality, particularly if fit for surveillance. Low-grade dysplasia and the length of the BO segment were associated with developing OAC.

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is five times more common among men. EAC tissue exhibits an increased concentration of androgen receptors. We previously reported lower EAC incidence following prostate cancer (PC), suggesting androgen deprivation therapy may reduce EAC incidence, but were unable to demonstrate reducing incidence of EAC with time (latency effect) that would support a cumulative effect of anti-androgen treatment.The Survival Epidemiology and End Results (SEER9) dataset from 1977–2004 was therefore examined to identify subjects with a first malignant primary of PC.Subjects were followed until second primary cancer diagnosis,death, or time period end. Age- and period-adjusted standardized incidence ratios (SIR) were calculated as an estimate of relative risk of an esophageal second malignant primary. Between 1977 and 2004, 343,538 subjects (following exclusion criteria) developed PC as a first primary malignant tumor, providing 2,014,337 years of follow-up.Subsequently 604 esophageal cancers developed, with 763 expected. The incidence of EAC fell following PC [SIR0.83 (95 % CI 0.74–0.93)] with a latency effect identified with SIR 1.1 3 months to 1 year post-PC, SIR 0.85 1–5 years post-PC, and SIR 0.75 greater than five years post-PC. The incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) after PC was also reduced [SIR, 0.79 (0.69-0.89)],with evidence of a latency effect also seen. There is a reduced risk of developing esophageal cancer, both EAC and ESCC, following PC. Androgen deprivation therapy may contribute, but changes in lifestyle following PC diagnosis and decrease in ESCC incidence are also plausible explanations.