Background Hazard perception ability, which develops with driving experience, has been proven to be associated with drivers' traffic involvement. Although classic reaction time-based hazard perception tests have been developed in many developed counties, experience-related differences may not be found in drivers from developing countries due to their increased opportunities to experience hazards on roads. Therefore, the present study aims to develop a hazard prediction test for Chinese drivers based on a predictive paradigm called “What happens next?” and assess its reliability and validity. Method Thirty-six video clips filmed from drivers’ perspectives of Chinese driving settings were presented to 54 novice drivers and 47 experienced drivers. Participants were asked to answer three questions after each video clip was blacked out and to then quickly press the mouse button on a reaction time-based hazard perception test. Both the differences in the test scores between novice and experienced drivers and the differences in scores between drivers with and without traffic violations were compared. Results The final hazard prediction test consisted of 20 video clips. A high internal consistency coefficient of the test, i.e., Cronbach's alpha = 0.862, was obtained. The total scores of the test were positively and significantly correlated with reaction times as measured on the video-based hazard perception test, thus providing evidence regarding the discriminant validity of the test. More importantly, drivers with traffic violations obtained significantly lower total scores on the test than did drivers without traffic violations. Conclusion The newly developed hazard prediction test exhibited adequate psychometric properties and provided a practical alternative for assessing drivers’ hazard perception ability in China.

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