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Incised valley fills are complex as they correspond to multiple sea-level cycles which makes interpretation and correlation of stratigraphic surfaces fraught with uncertainty. Despite numerous studies of the stratigraphy of incised valley fills, few have focused on extensive core coverage linked to high fidelity dating in a macro-tidal, tide-dominated setting. For this study nineteen sediment cores were drilled through the Holocene succession of the macro-tidal Ravenglass Estuary in north-west England, UK. A facies and stratigraphic model of the Ravenglass incised valley complex was constructed, to understand the lateral and vertical stacking patterns relative to the sea-level changes. The Ravenglass Estuary formed in five main stages. First, incision by rivers (ca 11 500 to ca 10 500 yrs BP) cutting through the shelf during lowstand, which was a period of fluvial dominance. Secondly, a rapid transgression and landward migration of the shoreline (10 500 to 6000 yrs BP). Wave action was dominant, promoting spit formation. The third stage was a highstand at ca 6000 to ca 5000 yrs BP, creating maximum accommodation and the majority of backfilling. The spits narrowed the inlet and dampened wave action. The fourth stage was caused by a minor fall of sea level (ca 5000 to ca 226 yrs BP), which forced the system to shift basinward. The fifth and final stage (226 yrs BP to present) involved the backfilling of the River Irt, southward migration of the northerly (Drigg) spit and merging of the River Irt with the Rivers Esk and Mite. The final stage was synchronous with the development of the central basin. As an analogue for ancient and deeply buried sandstones, most of the estuarine sedimentation occurred after transgression, of which the coarsest and cleanest sands are found in the tidal inlet, on the foreshore and within in-channel tidal bars. The best-connected (up to 1 km) reservoir-equivalent sands belong to the more stable channels.

In the quest to use modern analogues to understand clay mineral distribution patterns to better predict clay mineral occurrence in ancient and deeply buried sandstones, it has been necessary to define palaeo sub-environments from cores through modern sediment successions. Holocene cores from Ravenglass in the NW of England, United Kingdom, contained metre-thick successions of massive sand that could not be unequivocally interpreted in terms of palaeo sub-environments using conventional descriptive logging facies analysis. We have therefore explored the use of geochemical data from portable X-ray fluorescence analyses, from whole-sediment samples, to develop a tool to uniquely define the palaeo sub-environment based on geochemical data. This work was carried out through mapping and defining sub-depositional environments in the Ravenglass Estuary and collecting 497 surface samples for analysis. Using R statistical software, we produced a classification tree based on surface geochemical data from Ravenglass that can take compositional data for any sediment sample from the core or the surface and define the sub-depositional environment. The classification tree allowed us to geochemically define ten out of eleven of the sub-depositional environments from the Ravenglass Estuary surface sediments. We applied the classification tree to a core drilled through the Holocene succession at Ravenglass, which allowed us to identify the dominant paleo sub-depositional environments. A texturally featureless (massive) metre-thick succession, that had defied interpretation based on core description, was successfully related to a palaeo sub-depositional environment using the geochemical classification approach. Calibrated geochemical classification models may prove to be widely applicable to the interpretation of sub-depositional environments from other marginal marine environments and even from ancient and deeply buried estuarine sandstones.

Interpretation of unconsolidated Quaternary sedimentary core is difficult if key diagnostic features are obscured or not present, therefore traditional facies analysis is challenging. However, sediment texture remains a universal attribute which can be used to interpret sedimentary core. Here we present an automated classification workflow which implements Extreme Gradient Boosting and Bayesian Optimization of hyperparameters to differentiate estuarine sub‐depositional environments. We use 19 textural attributes, measured using laser particle size analysis of surface sediment samples from the Ravenglass Estuary, Cumbria, northwest England, to make unbiased classification of sub‐depositional environment and estuarine zone. Two predictive models created using the automated workflow are presented and evaluated using a suite of evaluation metrics, confusion matrices, and spatial analysis to understand their geological implications. Model 1 keeps all sub‐depositional environments discrete and has an overall accuracy of 68.96%. Model 2 merges related sub‐depositional environments to form inner‐coarse and outer‐estuary zones and has an overall accuracy of 84.14%. Both models have been applied to textural data obtained at 5 cm intervals from a Holocene core drilled through a tidal bar in the Ravenglass estuarine succession, NW England, to classify palaeo sub‐depositional environment. Predictive output of the models suggests that the core consistently experienced inner estuary deposition; all inner estuary environments are represented in the core. The workflow presented here could be applied to datasets from other marginal marine depositional systems to enhance the interpretation of their subsurface deposits. Ultimately, detailed interpretations of ancient, buried deposits could be made using models derived from analogous modern systems.