Repeated emergence, not international dissemination, is behind the rise of multidrug-resistant lineage 4 tuberculosis.

The "Beijing" Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) lineage 2 (L2) is spreading globally and has been associated with accelerated disease progression and increased antibiotic resistance. Here we performed a phylodynamic reconstruction of one of the L2 sublineages, the central Asian clade (CAC), which has recently spread to western Europe. We find that recent historical events have contributed to the evolution and dispersal of the CAC. Our timing estimates indicate that the clade was likely introduced to Afghanistan during the 1979-1989 Soviet-Afghan war and spread further after population displacement in the wake of the American invasion in 2001. We also find that drug resistance mutations accumulated on a massive scale in Mtb isolates from former Soviet republics after the fall of the Soviet Union, a pattern that was not observed in CAC isolates from Afghanistan. Our results underscore the detrimental effects of political instability and population displacement on tuberculosis control and demonstrate the power of phylodynamic methods in exploring bacterial evolution in space and time.

Background Historically, the major cause of meningococcal epidemics in the meningitis belt of sub-Saharan Africa has been Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A (NmA), but the incidence has been substantially reduced since the introduction of a serogroup A conjugate vaccine starting in 2010. We performed whole-genome sequencing on isolates collected post-2010 to assess their phylogenetic relationships and inter-country transmission. Methods A total of 716 invasive meningococcal isolates collected between 2011 and 2016 from 11 meningitis belt countries were whole-genome sequenced for molecular characterization by the three WHO Collaborating Centers for Meningitis. Findings We identified three previously-reported clonal complexes (CC): CC11 (n = 434), CC181 (n = 62) and CC5 (n = 90) primarily associated with NmW, NmX, and NmA, respectively, and an emerging CC10217 (n = 126) associated with NmC. CC11 expanded throughout the meningitis belt independent of the 2000 Hajj outbreak strain, with isolates from Central African countries forming a distinct sub-lineage within this expansion. Two major sub-lineages were identified for CC181 isolates, one mainly expanding in West African countries and the other found in Chad. CC10217 isolates from the large outbreaks in Nigeria and Niger were more closely related than those from the few cases in Mali and Burkina Faso. Interpretations Whole-genome based phylogenies revealed geographically distinct strain circulation as well as inter-country transmission events. Our results stress the importance of continued meningococcal molecular surveillance in the region, as well as the development of an affordable vaccine targeting these strains. Fund Meningitis Research Foundation; CDC's Office of Advanced Molecular Detection; GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance.

Invasive Haemophilus influenzae (Hi) disease has decreased in countries that included Hi type b (Hib) vaccination in their childhood immunization programs in the 1990s. Non-typeable (NT) and non-b strains are now the leading causes of invasive Hi disease in Europe, with most cases reported in young children and the elderly. Concerningly, no vaccines toward such strains are available and beta-lactam resistance is increasing. We describe the epidemiology of invasive Hi disease reported to the Norwegian Surveillance System for Communicable Diseases (MSIS) (2017–2021, n = 407). Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) was performed on 245 isolates. We investigated the molecular epidemiology (core genome phylogeny) and the presence of antibiotic resistance markers (including chromosomal mutations associated with beta-lactam or quinolone resistance). For isolates characterized with both WGS and phenotypic antibiotic susceptibility testing (AST) (n = 113) we assessed correlation between resistance markers and susceptibility categorization by calculation of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values. Incidence rates of invasive Hi disease in Norway ranged from 0.7 to 2.3 per 100,000 inhabitants/year (mean 1.5 per 100,000) and declined during the COVID-19 pandemic. The bacterial population consisted of two major phylogenetic groups with subclustering by serotype and multi-locus sequence type (ST). NTHi accounted for 71.8% (176). The distribution of STs was in line with previous European reports. We identified 13 clusters, including four encapsulated and three previously described international NTHi clones with blaTEM–1 (ST103) or altered PBP3 (rPBP3) (ST14/IIA and ST367/IIA). Resistance markers were detected in 25.3% (62/245) of the isolates, with blaTEM–1 (31, 50.0%) and rPBP3 (28, 45.2%) being the most frequent. All isolates categorized as resistant to aminopenicillins, tetracycline or chloramphenicol possessed relevant resistance markers, and the absence of relevant substitutions in PBP3 and GyrA/ParC predicted susceptibility to cefotaxime, ceftriaxone, meropenem and quinolones. Among the 132 WGS-only isolates, one isolate had PBP3 substitutions associated with resistance to third-generation cephalosporins, and one isolate had GyrA/ParC alterations associated with quinolone resistance. The detection of international virulent and resistant NTHi clones underlines the need for a global molecular surveillance system. WGS is a useful supplement to AST and should be performed on all invasive isolates.

In many countries the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) is low and is largely shaped by immigrant populations from high-burden countries. This is the case in Norway, where more than 80 % of TB cases are found among immigrants from high-incidence countries. A variable latent period, low rates of evolution and structured social networks make separating import from within-border transmission a major conundrum to TB control efforts in many low-incidence countries. Clinical Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates belonging to an unusually large genotype cluster associated with people born in the Horn of Africa have been identified in Norway over the last two decades. We modelled transmission based on whole-genome sequence data to estimate infection times for individual patients. By contrasting these estimates with time of arrival in Norway, we estimate on a case-by-case basis whether patients were likely to have been infected before or after arrival. Independent import was responsible for the majority of cases, but we estimate that about one-quarter of the patients had contracted TB in Norway. This study illuminates the transmission dynamics within an immigrant community. Our approach is broadly applicable to many settings where TB control programmes can benefit from understanding when and where patients acquired TB.