BackgroundIt is well known that safe delivery in a health facility reduces the risks of maternal and infant mortality resulting from perinatal complications. What is less understood are the factors associated with safe delivery practices. We investigate factors influencing health facility delivery practices while adjusting for multiple other factors simultaneously, spatial heterogeneity, and trends over time.MethodsWe fitted a logistic regression model to Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) data from Uganda in a framework that considered individual-level covariates, geographical features, and variations over five time points. We accounted for all two-covariate interactions and all three-covariate interactions for which two of the covariates already had a significant interaction, were able to quantify uncertainty in outputs using computationally intensive cluster bootstrap methods, and displayed outputs using a geographical information system. Finally, we investigated what information could be predicted about districts at future time-points, before the next LQAS survey is carried out. To do this, we applied the model to project a confidence interval for the district level coverage of health facility delivery at future time points, by using the lower and upper end values of known demographics to construct a confidence range for the prediction and define priority groups.ResultsWe show that ease of access, maternal age and education are strongly associated with delivery in a health facility; after accounting for this, there remains a significant trend towards greater uptake over time. We use this model together with known demographics to formulate a nascent early warning system that identifies candidate districts expected to have low prevalence of facility-based delivery in the immediate future.ConclusionsOur results support the hypothesis that increased development, particularly related to education and access to health facilities, will act to increase facility-based deliveries, a factor associated with reducing perinatal associated mortality. We provide a statistical method for using inexpensive and routinely collected monitoring and evaluation data to answer complex epidemiology and public health questions in a resource-poor setting. We produced a model based on this data that explained the spatial distribution of facility-based delivery in Uganda. Finally, we used this model to make a prediction about the future priority of districts that was validated by monitoring and evaluation data collected in the next year.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12982-016-0049-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

ObjectivesThis study estimates the proportion of Orphans and Vulnerable Children (OVC) attending school in 89 districts of Uganda from 2011 – 2013 and investigates the factors influencing OVC access to education among this population.MethodsThis study used secondary survey data from OVCs aged 5 – 17 years, collected using Lot Quality Assurance Sampling in 87 Ugandan districts over a 3-year period (2011 – 2013). Estimates of OVC school attendance were determined for the yearly time periods. Logistic regression was used to investigate the factors influencing OVC access to education.Results19,354 children aged 5-17 were included in the analysis. We estimated that 79.1% (95% CI: 78.5% – 79.7%) of OVCs attended school during the 3-year period. Logistic regression revealed the odds of attending school were lower among OVCs from Western (OR 0.88; 95% CI: 0.79 – 0.99) and Northern (OR 0.64; 95% CI: 0.56 – 0.73) regions compared to the Central region. Female OVCs had a significantly higher odds of attending school (OR 1.09; 95% CI: 1.02 – 1.17) compared to their male counterparts. When adjusting for all variables simultaneously, we found the odds of school attendance reduced by 12% between 2011 and 2012 among all OVCs (OR 0.88; 95% CI: 0.81 – 0.97).ConclusionOur findings reinforce the need to provide continuing support to OVC in Uganda, ensuring they have the opportunity to attain an education. The data indicate important regional and gender variation that needs to be considered for support strategies and in social policy. The results suggest the need for greater local empowerment to address the needs of OVCs. We recommend further research to understand why OVC access to education and attendance varies between regions and improvement of district level mapping of OVC access to education, and further study to understand the particular factors impacting the lower school attendance of male OVCs.

Over the last decade, progress has been made toward improving the SRH of young people in Uganda. Further efforts are required to ensure universal access and sufficient health education to facilitate the continued improvement of safe sexual behaviors among youth aged 15-24 years.