Objective: The coronavirus, which originated in Wuhan, causing the disease called COVID-19, spread more than 200 countries and continents end of the March. In this study, it was aimed to model the outbreak with different time series models and also predict the indicators. Materials and Methods: The data was collected from 25 countries which have different process at least 20 days. ARIMA(p,d,q), Simple Exponential Smoothing, Holt’s Two Parameter, Brown’s Double Exponential Smoothing Models were used. The prediction and forecasting values were obtained for the countries. Trends and seasonal effects were also evaluated. Results and Discussion: China has almost under control according to forecasting. The cumulative death prevalence in Italy and Spain will be the highest, followed by the Netherlands, France, England, China, Denmark, Belgium, Brazil and Sweden respectively as of the first week of April. The highest daily case prevalence was observed in Belgium, America, Canada, Poland, Ireland, Netherlands, France and Israel between 10% and 12%.The lowest rate was observed in China and South Korea. Turkey was one of the leading countries in terms of ranking these criteria. The prevalence of the new case and the recovered were higher in Spain than Italy. Conclusion: More accurate predictions for the future can be obtained using time series models with a wide range of data from different countries by modelling real time and retrospective data. Bangladesh Journal of Medical Science Vol.19(0) 2020 p.06-20
Dünya çapında 19 Mart 2020 itibariyle 170'in üzerinde ülkeyi saran COVID-19 enfeksiyonu neticesinde pozitif vakaların ve ölüm haberlerinin hızla yayıldığı herkes tarafından endişe ile takip edilmektedir. Sosyal medya ve internet ortamında çok ciddi düzeyde bilgi birikimi ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı an itibariyle elde edilen veriler ışığında tüm dünya ülkelerinde enfeksiyon etkileri ve süreci hakkında genel yapıyı özetleyen istatistiki bilgiler sunmak ve enfeksiyon ölçütlerinin günlük değişimini modellemektir. Elde edilen sonuçlar değerlendirildiğinde, birikimli (kümülatif) pozitif vaka sayısı, birikimli ölüm sayısı ve diğer bazı ölçütlerin ülkelere göre seyrinin aynı olmadığı, süreci en iyi kontrol eden ülkelerin başında Almanya ve Güney Kore'nin geldiği, Türkiye' nin sürecinin ilk 10 günlük süreç itibariyle hızlı yayılım gösteren ülkelere benzediği görüldü. Ayrıca Türkiye için 20-29 Mart 2020 arasında ortaya çıkabilecek pozitif vaka sayısı ve birikimli ölüm sayıları tahmin edildiğinde 20 Mart itibariyle pozitif vaka sayısının sayının 550 civarında, an itibariyle 4 olan ölüm sayısının 11 olacağı öngörülmüştür.
Smoothing Models were used. The prediction and forecasting values were obtained for the countries.Trends and seasonal effects were also evaluated.Results: China has almost under control according to forecasting. The cumulative death prevalence in Italy and Spain will be the highest, followed by the Netherlands,
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