Land use and land cover (LULC) change is one of the key driving elements responsible for altering the hydrology of a watershed. In this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal LULC changes between 2001 and 2018 and their impacts on the water balance of the Jhelum River Basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to analyze the impacts on water yield (WY) and evapotranspiration (ET). The model was calibrated and validated with discharge data between 1995 and 2005 and then simulated with different land use. The increase was observed in forest, settlement and water areas during the study period. At the catchment scale, we found that afforestation has reduced the WY and surface runoff, while enhanced the ET. Moreover, this change was more pronounced at the sub-basin scale. Some sub-basins, especially in the northern part of the study area, exhibited an increase in WY due to an increase in the snow cover area. Similarly, extremes land use scenarios also showed significant impact on water balance components. The basin WY has decreased by 38 mm/year and ET has increased about 36 mm/year. The findings of this study could guide the watershed manager in the development of sustainable LULC planning and water resources management.

Projected climate changes for the 21st century may cause great uncertainties on the hydrology of a river basin. This study explored the impacts of climate change on the water balance and hydrological regime of the Jhelum River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Two downscaling methods (SDSM, Statistical Downscaling Model and LARS-WG, Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator), three Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for three future periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2090s) were used to assess the climate change impacts on flow regimes. The results exhibited that both downscaling methods suggested an increase in annual streamflow over the river basin. There is generally an increasing trend of winter and autumn discharge, whereas it is complicated for summer and spring to conclude if the trend is increasing or decreasing depending on the downscaling methods. Therefore, the uncertainty associated with the downscaling of climate simulation needs to consider, for the best estimate, the impact of climate change, with its uncertainty, on a particular basin. The study also resulted that water yield and evapotranspiration in the eastern part of the basin (sub-basins at high elevation) would be most affected by climate change. The outcomes of this study would be useful for providing guidance in water management and planning for the river basin under climate change.

Water resources planning and management depend on the quality of climatic data, particularly rainfall data, for reliable hydrological modeling. This can be very problematic in transboundary rivers with limited disclosing of data among the riparian countries. Satellite precipitation products are recognized as a promising source to substitute the ground-based observations in these conditions. This research aims to assess the feasibility of using a satellite-based precipitation product for better hydrological modeling in an ungauged and riparian river in Pakistan, i.e., the Chenab River. A semidistributed hydrological model of The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was set up and two renowned satellite precipitation products, i.e., global precipitation mission (GPM) IMERG-F v6 and tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) 3B42 v7, were selected to assess the runoff pattern in Chenab River. The calibration was done from 2001–2006 with two years of a warmup period. The validation (2007–2010) results exhibit higher correlation between observed and simulated discharges at monthly timescale simulations, IMERG-F (R2 = 0.89, NSE = 0.82), 3B42 (R2 = 0.85, NSE = 0.72), rather than daily timescale simulations, IMERG-F (R2 = 0.66, NSE = 0.61), 3B42 (R2 = 0.64, NSE = 0.54). Moreover, the comparison between IMERG-F and 3B42, shows that IMERG-F is superior to 3B42 by indicating higher R2, NSE and lower percent bias (PBIAS) at both monthly and daily timescale. The results are strengthened by Taylor diagram statistics, which represent a higher correlation (R) and less RMS error between observed and simulated values for IMERG-F. IMERG-F has great potential utility in the Chenab River catchment as it outperformed the 3B42 precipitation in this study. However, its poor skill of capturing peaks at daily timescale remains, leaving a room for IMERG-F to improve its algorithm in the upcoming release.