With increased demand for water and soil in this Anthropocene era, it is necessary to understand the water balance components and critical source areas of land degradation that lead to soil erosion in agricultural dominant river basins. Two medium-sized east-flowing rivers in India, namely Nagavali and Vamsadhara, play a significant role in supporting water supply and agriculture demands in parts of the Odisha districts of Kalahandi, Koraput and Rayagada, as well as the Andhra Pradesh districts of Srikakulam and Vizianagaram. Floods are more likely in these basins as a result of cyclones and low-pressure depressions in the Bay of Bengal. The water balance components and sediment yield of the Nagavali and Vamsadhara river basins were assessed using a semi-distributed soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model in this study. The calibrated model performance revealed a high degree of consistency between observed and predicted monthly streamflow and sediment load. The water balance analysis of Nagavali and Vamsadhara river basins showed the evapotranspiration accounted for 63% of the average annual rainfall. SWAT simulated evapotranspiration showed a correlation of 0.78 with FLDAS data. The calibrated SWAT model showed that 26.5% and 49% of watershed area falling under high soil erosion class over Nagavali and Vamsadhara river basins, respectively. These sub watersheds require immediate attention to management practices to improve the soil and water conservation measures.

Climate-induced changes in precipitation and temperature can have a profound impact on watershed hydrological regimes, ultimately affecting agricultural yields and the quantity and quality of surface water systems. In India, the majority of the watersheds are facing water quality and quantity issues due to changes in the precipitation and temperature, which requires assessment and adaptive measures. This study seeks to evaluate the effects of climate change on the water quality and quantity at a regional scale in the Nagavali and Vamsadhara watersheds of eastern India. The impact rainfall variations in the study watersheds were modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with bias-corrected, statistically downscaled models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP-6) data for historical (1975–2014), near future (2022–2060), and far future (2061–2100) timeframes using three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. The range of projected changes in percentage of mean annual precipitation and mean temperature varies from 0 to 41.7% and 0.7 °C to 2.7 °C in the future climate, which indicates a warmer and wetter climate in the Nagavali and Vamsadhara watersheds. Under SSP245, the average monthly changes in precipitation range from a decrease of 4.6% to an increase of 25.5%, while the corresponding changes in streamflow and sediment yield range from −11.2% to 41.2% and −15.6% to 44.9%, respectively. Similarly, under SSP370, the average monthly change in precipitation ranges from −3.6% to 36.4%, while the corresponding changes in streamflow and sediment yield range from −21.53% to 77.71% and −28.6% to 129.8%. Under SSP585, the average monthly change in precipitation ranges from −2.5% to 60.5%, while the corresponding changes in streamflow and sediment yield range from −15.8% to 134.4% and −21% to 166.5%. In the Nagavali and Vamsadhara watersheds, historical simulations indicate that 2438 and 5120 sq. km of basin areas, respectively, were subjected to high soil erosion. In contrast, under the far future Cold-Wet SSP585 scenario, 7468 and 9426 sq. km of basin areas in the Nagavali and Vamsadhara watersheds, respectively, are projected to experience high soil erosion. These results indicate that increased rainfall in the future (compared to the present) will lead to higher streamflow and sediment yield in both watersheds. This could have negative impacts on soil properties, agricultural lands, and reservoir capacity. Therefore, it is important to implement soil and water management practices in these river basins to reduce sediment loadings and mitigate these negative impacts.