We address the importance of emerging market economies for the global economy by testing for volatility spillovers between the United States and a number of emerging market economies. We use the methodology recently introduced by Diebold and Yilmaz and daily data, over the period from December 8, 2011, to March 21, 2018, on exchange-traded funds (ETFs), retrieved from Yahoo! Finance, for seven emerging market countries—China, Colombia, Greece, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, and South Korea. We find statistically significant volatility spillovers from emerging market economies to the United States, meaning that the growth prospects of emerging market economies are becoming extremely relevant for global economic growth. JEL classification: E32, F20, F42
As the world economic power shifts from the advanced G7 countries-Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States-to the seven largest emerging market countries (EM7)-Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey-the vulnerability of these emerging market countries to exogenous shocks is becoming of growing importance. This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the effects of oil price shocks on real economic activity in the EM7 economies in the context of two classes of empirical models. In general, we find that oil price uncertainty has statistically significant effects on the real output of the EM7 economies and that the relationship between oil prices and economic activity is in general symmetric. We also find that oil price uncertainty has in general a negative effect on world crude oil production.
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