To validate a clinical decision support system (CDSS) that estimates risk of diabetic retinopathy (DR) and to personalize screening protocols in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients. Methods: We utilized a CDSS based on a fuzzy random forest, integrated by fuzzy decision trees with the following variables: current age, sex, arterial hypertension, diabetes duration and treatment, HbA1c, glomerular filtration rate, microalbuminuria, and body mass index. Validation was made using the electronic health records of a sample of 101,802 T2DM patients. Diagnosis was made by retinal photographs, according to EURODIAB guidelines and the International Diabetic Retinopathy Classification. Results: The prevalence of DR was 19,759 patients (19.98%). Results yielded 16,593 (16.31%) true positives, 72,617 (71.33%) true negatives, 3165 (3.1%) false positives, and 9427 (9.26%) false negatives, with an accuracy of 0.876 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.858-0.886), sensitivity of 84% (95% CI, 83.46-84.49), specificity of 88.5% (95% CI, 88.29-88.72), positive predictive value of 63.8% (95% CI, 63.18-64.35), negative predictive value of 95.8% (95% CI, 95.68-95.96), positive likelihood ratio of 7.30, and negative likelihood ratio of 0.18. The type 1 error was 0.115, and the type 2 error was 0.16. Conclusions: We confirmed a good prediction rate for DR from a representative sample of T2DM in our population. Furthermore, the CDSS was able to offer an individualized screening protocol for each patient according to the calculated risk confidence value.

ObjectiveThe aim of present study was to evaluate our clinical decision support system (CDSS) for predicting risk of diabetic retinopathy (DR). We selected randomly a real population of patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) who were attending our screening programme.Methods and analysisThe sample size was 602 patients with T2DM randomly selected from those who attended the DR screening programme. The algorithm developed uses nine risk factors: current age, sex, body mass index (BMI), duration and treatment of diabetes mellitus (DM), arterial hypertension, Glicated hemoglobine (HbA1c), urine–albumin ratio and glomerular filtration.ResultsThe mean current age of 67.03±10.91, and 272 were male (53.2%), and DM duration was 10.12±6.4 years, 222 had DR (35.8%). The CDSS was employed for 1 year. The prediction algorithm that the CDSS uses included nine risk factors: current age, sex, BMI, DM duration and treatment, arterial hypertension, HbA1c, urine–albumin ratio and glomerular filtration. The area under the curve (AUC) for predicting the presence of any DR achieved a value of 0.9884, the sensitivity of 98.21%, specificity of 99.21%, positive predictive value of 98.65%, negative predictive value of 98.95%, α error of 0.0079 and β error of 0.0179.ConclusionOur CDSS for predicting DR was successful when applied to a real population.