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Background and aims Although adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) for resected hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may improve survival for some patients, identifying which patients can benefit remains challenging. The present study aimed to construct a survival prediction calculator for individualized estimating the net survival benefit of adjuvant TACE for patients with resected HCC. Methods From a multicenter database, consecutive patients undergoing curative resection for HCC were enrolled and divided into the developing and validation cohorts. Using the independent survival predictors in the developing cohort, two nomogram models were constructed for patients with and without adjuvant TACE, respectively, which predictive performance was validated internally and externally by measuring concordance index (C-index) and calibration. The difference between two estimates of the prediction models was the expected survival benefit of adjuvant TACE. Results A total of 2514 patients met the inclusion criteria for the study. The nomogram prediction models for patients with and without adjuvant TACE were, respectively, built by incorporating the same eight independent survival predictors, including portal hypertension, Child–Pugh score, alpha-fetoprotein level, tumor size and number, macrovascular and microvascular invasion, and resection margin. These two prediction models demonstrated good calibration and discrimination, with all the C-indexes of greater than 0.75 in the developing and validation cohorts. A browser-based calculator was generated for individualized estimating the net survival benefit of adjuvant TACE. Conclusions Based on large-scale real-world data, an easy-to-use online calculator can be adopted as a decision aid to predict which patients with resected HCC can benefit from adjuvant TACE.

Our study investigated the correlation between sarcopenia and clinical outcomes in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with lenvatinib. We retrospectively evaluated 40 consecutive patients with unresectable HCC receiving lenvatinib between November 2018 and May 2020 at the First Hospital of Jilin University. Skeletal muscle mass was measured before treatment initiation. Prognostic significance was assessed with univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were evaluated for patients with and without sarcopenia. Sarcopenia was present in 23/40 patients (57.5%). After a median follow-up of 9.2 months, patients with sarcopenia had significantly worse OS and PFS compared with those without sarcopenia (OS: 8.4 months [m] vs 14.7 m, P = .02; PFS: 4.2 m vs 9.0 m, P = .04). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models identified presence of sarcopenia as an independent risk factor for shorter OS (hazard ratio [HR], 0.257; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.083-0.794; P = .02). In subgroup analysis, sarcopenia was associated with worse survival than non-sarcopenic patients, irrespective of age, Barcelona clinic liver cancer stage, or albumin-bilirubin grade. Our results show sarcopenia may be a predictor of poor prognosis in patients with HCC receiving lenvatinib. Management of sarcopenia is a vital factor for improving survival outcomes in patients with HCC.

Background/PurposeLenvatinib is a first-line treatment for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC). We assessed the value of early alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) response for predicting clinical outcomes with lenvatinib treatment in patients with HBV-related uHCC and elevated AFP levels.MethodsThis retrospective analysis included patients with HBV-related uHCC and baseline AFP levels ≥20 ng/ml who received lenvatinib for >1 month between November 2018 and May 2021. Early AFP response was defined as a >20% decrease in AFP serum level from baseline after 4 weeks of lenvatinib treatment. Radiological response (Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors v1.1), progression-free survival, and overall survival were assessed in AFP responders and non-responders.ResultsOf the 46 patients analyzed, 30 (65.2%) were early AFP responders and 16 (34.8%) were non-responders. Compared to the non-responders, early AFP responders had a significantly higher objective response rate (34.5% vs 6.3%, p=0.0349), disease control rate (82.8% vs 50.0%; p=0.0203) and longer median progression-free survival (13.0 vs 7.0 months; HR, 0.464; 95% CI, 0.222-0.967; p=0.028). A subsequent multivariate analysis confirmed that early AFP response (HR, 0.387; 95% CI, 0.183-0.992; p=0.0154), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status of 0 (HR, 0.890; 95% CI, 0.811-0.976; p=0.0132) and Albumin-Bilirubin grade 1 (HR, 0.457; 95% CI, 0.269-0.963; p=0.0327) were independent prognostic factors for longer progression-free survival.ConclusionAFP is an important prognostic factor and a predictive biomarker for survival benefit with lenvatinib treatment in patients with HBV-related uHCC.