Purpose: The purpose of this research was to investigate the fluctuations in international tourist arrivals in Kenya and identify the underlying factors contributing to these trends. The study aimed to gain a deeper understanding of the impact of stochastic events on tourist arrivals. Methodology: The research focused on international tourist arrivals in Kenya across seven geographical areas. It utilized annual time series data from 1980 to 2020 and examined various variables, including tourism arrivals, terrorism, political instability, conferences, and natural disasters. Descriptive statistics, the Kruskal-Wallis test, Lepage change point detection, and a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) with Granger causality tests were employed to analyze the data. Findings: The findings revealed significant fluctuations in preferred destinations, source markets, purpose of visits, and length of stay among international tourists in Kenya over the study period. Major stochastic events were observed to coincide with significant changes in net arrivals, source markets, or destinations. Notably, terrorism, conferences, and the combined impact of all factors had a significant influence on net arrivals. Political instability, pandemics, and natural disasters were also found to affect international tourism arrivals. Recommendations: Based on the results, policymakers are advised to prioritize safety and security measures to mitigate the adverse effects of pandemics and political instability on the tourism industry in Kenya. Additionally, the study recommends the development of targeted marketing strategies to attract resilient source markets. Furthermore, promoting sustainable tourism practices is essential to mitigate the long-term impact of negative events on the industry. These recommendations aim to enhance the resilience and growth of the tourism sector in Kenya.

This study examined the influence of economic factors and government interventions on the demand for international tourism in Kenya. Using a correlational research design and data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Kenya Tourism Board, and World Development Indicators, the study analyzes various economic indicators and tourism-related data for the period 1980-2019. The analysis includes correlation analysis, regression analysis, cointegration testing, and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis. The findings reveal significant relationships between economic factors, government initiatives, and international tourism arrivals. GDP and tourism earnings exhibit strong positive correlations with arrivals, while variables such as the weighted exchange rate, trade openness, tourism product price, substitute product price, and tourism promotion funds show moderate to negative correlations. Regression analysis and VECM modeling provide insights into the relationships and dynamics among the variables, allowing for forecasting of future trends. The findings of this study suggest that government initiatives, particularly investment in tourism promotion, play a significant role in attracting international tourists to Kenya. The country's GDP and tourism earnings are also important factors influencing tourism demand. These findings can guide policymakers and tourism stakeholders in formulating strategies to further develop and promote the tourism industry in Kenya. Measures to enhance the country's political stability, diversify tourism offerings, and allocate sufficient funds for tourism promotion can contribute to sustained growth in international tourism arrivals.