Rice is the staple food for about half of the world's population and mills are the essential processing link between farmers and consumers, making rice milling one of the most important agro‐processing sectors globally. This paper assesses changes in rice and paddy prices, and processing margins during the COVID‐19 pandemic shock through the lens of rice mills in Myanmar. Our data, collected through telephone surveys with a large number of medium‐ and large‐scale rice millers in September 2020, reveal significant disruptions from the COVID‐19 pandemic, including transportation restrictions, employee lay‐offs, and reduced operations relative to normal times. However, milling margins, and paddy and rice prices were mostly stable, showing only minor increases compared to 2019. Rice prices increased most for the varieties linked to export markets, though the gains were mostly passed through to farmers as higher paddy prices. Similarly, higher rice prices achieved by modern mills—due to extra processing—were mostly transmitted to producers. Our results also highlight the major importance of byproducts—broken rice and rice bran—sales to overall milling margins as byproduct sales allowed mill operators to sustain negative paddy‐to‐rice margins.

and Mandalay were originally interviewed by telephone in early May 2020 to determine how their businesses were being affected by COVID-19 related restrictions. The results of that survey were published in Myanmar Strategy Support Program Policy Note 08. To trace the continuing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on their economic activities, a second phone survey was done between 5 and 7 June 2020. This Note reports on the results of this second survey. Key findings • Seventy percent of input retailers reported at least one disruption caused by COVID-19 in the two weeks prior to the survey. • In-kind lending is an important component of the input retail sector-62 percent of retailers receive inputs on credit from suppliers and 75 percent offer credit to customers. The COVID-19 crisis is adversely affecting these credit relationships. Difficulty collecting repayments on recent lending was the most commonly cited disruption-55 percent of input retailers reported experiencing this difficulty in the last two weeks. • Fertilizer, pesticide, and vegetable seed sales increased since the May survey, but sales are still lower than the same period in 2019. Recommended actions • Cash or lending support to farmers-in line with Action 2.1.7(b) under the COVID-19 Economic Relief Plan (CERP) of the Government of Myanmar-is still an immediate need and would facilitate greater input investment to increase monsoon crop production. • Extend working capital loan support (CERP 2.1.1) to input retailers and other key actors in the agri-food system to mitigate low repayment from farmers and to allow investment. • Remove or delay payments of business taxes and fees (CERP 2.1.3) for input retailers. • Ease transportation restrictions at all levels, including for travel within townships. • Local and national governments should plan and design future lockdown protocols that allow input retailers and other essential actors in the agri-food system to function with limited interruption, provided they follow specified safety protocols.

To understand how Myanmar's crop marketing system has been affected by the COVID-19 crisis, a series of phone interviews are being conducted with agricultural commodity traders from Shan, Mandalay, Sagaing, and Magway. This report presents results from the second round of interviews conducted between 29 June and 1 July 2020 with 107 traders. Key findings  Just over half of the traders interviewed were still experiencing business disruptions from the COVID-19 crisis. The main disruption was on the demand side with difficulties selling crops-particularly for traders in Mandalay and Magway trading sesame and pulses.  Difficulty collecting repayments on credit provided to farmers was a disruption reported by almost one-quarter of traders. While informal credit provision is an important part of the trading business, traders are decreasing the share of customers to whom they offer credit.  Almost two-thirds of wholesale traders are storing crops longer this year compared to last year, largely due to current low crop prices.  In response to COVID-19 risks and restrictions, traders have increased mobile phone use, including an increase in the use of mobile payments. Recommended actions  Movement restrictions should continue to be relaxed, as these constrain trade in agricultural commodities in Myanmar. Most of these restrictions are being implemented at local levels. If lockdowns become necessary in the future, governments should coordinate their policies to allow movement of essential goods, such as agricultural crops.  Government should formalize agricultural trade agreements and promote crop exports to Myanmar's neighbors. Many traders reported that uncertainties around cross-border trade depress prices and affect the entire crop marketing system.  Cash support to farmers-Action 2.1.7(b) under the COVID-19 Economic Relief Plan (CERP) of the Government of Myanmar-also will support traders through increased repayments of the inputs farmers received on credit.  Government should facilitate the continued growth of mobile phone use among traders.

• 154 crop traders in Shan, Mandalay, Sagaing, and Magway were interviewed by phone between 18 and 31 May 2020 to understand how crop marketing has been affected by the COVID-19 crisis. • 77 percent of traders surveyed have experienced at least one type of disruption due to COVID-19. Large effects were reported both upstream, with difficulties in buying crops, and downstream, with difficulties in selling crops. • Formal and informal lending has decreased. One-third of traders still offering credit to farmers reported a decrease in lending this year compared to 2019. • 55 percent of traders reported lower prices this year compared to last. Oilseed and pulse prices have declined significantly. However, maize prices have increased. • Overall, traders are experiencing dramatic drops in revenues: 42 percent expect revenues to be at least 25 percent lower in 2020 relative to 2019. • 28 percent of traders cited travel restrictions as the main reason for decreased trading volumes this year compared to 2019. Recommendations • Local and national governments should continue to lift transport restrictions affecting agricultural commodities. This will improve business conditions for traders, while mitigating effects of COVID-19 for both farmers and consumers. • Government should help fill credit gaps for both farmers-to enable them to acquire inputs-and traders-to enable continued investments in trade. • Lastly, government should disseminate market information and encourage information sharing among traders and between traders and farmers.

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