OBJECTIVE The retention of patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is key to achieving global targets in response to the HIV epidemic. Loss to follow-up (LTFU) can be substantial, with unknown outcomes for patients lost to ART programmes. We examined changes in outcomes of patients LTFU over calendar time, assessed associations with other study and programme characteristics and investigated the relative success of different tracing methods. METHODS We performed a systematic review and logistic random-effects meta-regression analysis of studies that traced adults or children who started ART and were LTFU in sub-Saharan African treatment programmes. The primary outcome was mortality, and secondary outcomes were undocumented transfer to another programme, treatment interruption and the success of tracing attempts. RESULTS We included 32 eligible studies from 12 countries in sub-Saharan Africa: 20 365 patients LTFU were traced, and 15 708 patients (77.1%) were found. Compared to telephone calls, tracing that included home visits increased the probability of success: the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) was 9.35 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.85–47.31). The risk of death declined over calendar time (aOR per 1-year increase 0.86, 95% CI 0.78–0.95), whereas undocumented transfers (aOR 1.13, 95% CI 0.96–1.34) and treatment interruptions (aOR 1.31, 95% CI 1.18–1.45) tended to increase. Mortality was lower in urban than in rural areas (aOR 0.59, 95% CI 0.36–0.98), but there was no difference in mortality between adults and children. The CD4 cell count at the start of ART increased over time. CONCLUSIONS Mortality among HIV-positive patients who started ART in sub-Saharan Africa, were lost to programmes and were successfully traced has declined substantially during the scale-up of ART, probably driven by less severe immunodeficiency at the start of therapy.

IntroductionBy 2020, 90% of all people diagnosed with HIV should receive long‐term combination antiretroviral therapy (ART). In sub‐Saharan Africa, this target is threatened by loss to follow‐up in ART programmes. The proportion of people retained on ART long‐term cannot be easily determined, because individuals classified as lost to follow‐up, may have self‐transferred to another HIV treatment programme, or may have died. We describe retention on ART in sub‐Saharan Africa, first based on observed data as recorded in the clinic databases, and second adjusted for undocumented deaths and self‐transfers.MethodsWe analysed data from HIV‐infected adults and children initiating ART between 2009 and 2014 at a sub‐Saharan African HIV treatment programme participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA). We used the Kaplan–Meier method to calculate the cumulative incidence of retention on ART and the Aalen–Johansen method to calculate the cumulative incidences of death, loss to follow‐up, and stopping ART. We used inverse probability weighting to adjust clinic data for undocumented mortality and self‐transfer, based on estimates from a recent systematic review and meta‐analysis.ResultsWe included 505,634 patients: 12,848 (2.5%) from Central Africa, 109,233 (21.6%) from East Africa, 347,343 (68.7%) from Southern Africa and 36,210 (7.2%) from West Africa. In crude analyses of observed clinic data, 52.1% of patients were retained on ART, 41.8% were lost to follow‐up and 6.0% had died 5 years after ART initiation. After accounting for undocumented deaths and self‐transfers, we estimated that 66.6% of patients were retained on ART, 18.8% had stopped ART and 14.7% had died at 5 years.ConclusionsImproving long‐term retention on ART will be crucial to attaining the 90% on ART target. Naïve analyses of HIV cohort studies, which do not account for undocumented mortality and self‐transfer of patients, may severely underestimate both mortality and retention on ART.

Retention on antiretrovirals is of concern in Africa. We analyzed outcomes in patients lost to follow-up: at 4 years after last contact, 22% had died, 23% had stopped therapy, 15% were in another clinic, and 32% could not be found.