United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 6 targets access to water and sanitation for all people in the next 15 years. However, for developing countries such as Nepal, it is more challenging to achieve this goal given its poor infrastructure and high population growth. To assess the water crisis in the most developed and populated area of Nepal, the Kathmandu Valley, we estimated available water resources and domestic water demand in the valley. We estimated a supply deficit of 102 million liters per day (MLD) in 2016, after completion of the first phase of the Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP). If the MWSP is completed within the specified timeframe, and sufficient treatment and distribution infrastructure is developed, then there would be no water deficit by 2023-2025. This indicates that the MWSP will make a significant contribution to the valley's water security. However, emphasis must be given to utilizing all of the water available from the MWSP by developing sufficient water treatment and distribution infrastructure. Alternate mitigation options, such as planning land use for potential recharge, introducing micro-to macro-level rainwater harvesting structures, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources, and water demand-side management, would also be helpful.
Study region: Kathmandu Valley, Capital city of Nepal. Study focus: This study applied three hydrological models (i.e., SWAT, HBV, and BTOPMC) to analyze the water balance components and their temporal and seasonal variations in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. The water balance components were investigated using the same precipitation, climatic data, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) as input variables for each model. The yearly and seasonal variations in each component and the interactions among them were analyzed. There was a close agreement between the monthly observed and calibrated runoff at the watershed scale, and all the three models captured well the flow patterns for most of the seasons. New hydrological insights for the region: The average annual runoff in the study watershed calculated by the SWAT, HBV, and BTOPMC models was 887, 834, and 865 mm, corresponding to 59%, 55%, and 57% of the annual precipitation, respectively. The average annual evapotranspiration (ET) was 625, 623, and 718 mm, and the estimated yearly average total water storage (TWS) was 5, -35, and 29 mm, respectively. The long-term average TWS component was similar in all three models. ET had the lowest inter-annual variation and runoff had the greatest inter-annual variation in all models. Predictive analysis using the three models suggested a reasonable range for estimates of runoff, ET, and TWS. Although there was variation in the estimates among the different models, our results indicate a possible range of variation for those values, which is a useful finding for the short- and long-term planning of water resource development projects in the study area. The effects of historical water use, water stress, and climatic projections using multi-model water balance approaches offer a useful direction for future studies to enhance our understanding of anthropogenic effects in the Kathmandu Valley
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