Water wars are a prospect in coming years as nations struggle with the effects of climate change, growing water demand, and declining resources. The Indus River supplies water to the world's largest contiguous irrigation system generating 90% of the food production in Pakistan as well as 13 gigawatts of hydroelectricity. Because any gap between water supply and demand has major and far-reaching ramifications, an understanding of natural flow variability is vital-especially when only 47 years of instrumental record is available. A network of tree-ring sites from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) was used to reconstruct river discharge levels covering the period AD 1452-2008. Novel methods tree-ring detrending based on the 'signal free' method and estimation of reconstruction uncertainty based on the 'maximum entropy bootstrap' are used. This 557-year record displays strong inter-decadal fluctuations that could not have been deduced from the short gauged record. Recent discharge levels are high but not statistically unprecedented and are likely to be associated with increased meltwater from unusually heavy prior winter snowfall. A period of prolonged below-average discharge is indicated during AD 1572-1683. This unprecedented low-flow period may have been a time of persistently below-average winter snowfall and provides a warning for future water resource planning. Our reconstruction thus helps fill the hydrological information vacuum for modeling the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan region and is useful for planning future development of UIB water resources in an effort to close Pakistan's ''water gap''. Finally, the river discharge reconstruction provides the basis for comparing past, present, and future hydrologic changes, which will be crucial for detection and attribution of hydroclimate change in the Upper Indus Basin.

Chilgoza pine is an economically and ecologically important evergreen coniferous tree species of the dry and rocky temperate zone, and a native of south Asia. This species is rated as near threatened (NT) by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). This study hypothesized that climatic, soil and topographic variations strongly influence the distribution pattern and potential habitat suitability prediction of Chilgoza pine. Accordingly, this study was aimed to document the potential habitat suitability variations of Chilgoza pine under varying environmental scenarios by using 37 different environmental variables. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm in MaxEnt software was used to forecast the potential habitat suitability under current and future (i.e., 2050s and 2070s) climate change scenarios (i.e., Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs): 245 and 585). A total of 238 species occurrence records were collected from Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, and employed to build the predictive distribution model. The results showed that normalized difference vegetation index, mean temperature of coldest quarter, isothermality, precipitation of driest month and volumetric fraction of the coarse soil fragments (>2 mm) were the leading predictors of species presence prediction. High accuracy values (>0.9) of predicted distribution models were recorded, and remarkable shrinkage of potentially suitable habitat of Chilgoza pine was followed by Afghanistan, India and China. The estimated extent of occurrence (EOO) of the species was about 84,938 km2, and the area of occupancy (AOO) was about 888 km2, with 54 major sub-populations. This study concluded that, as the total predicted suitable habitat under current climate scenario (138,782 km2) is reasonably higher than the existing EOO, this might represent a case of continuous range contraction. Hence, the outcomes of this research can be used to build the future conservation and management plans accordingly for this economically valuable species in the region.

Our understanding of the full range of natural variability in streamflow, including how modern flow compares to the past, is poorly understood for the Upper Indus Basin because of short instrumental gauge records. To help address this challenge, we use Hierarchical Bayesian Regression with partial pooling to develop six centuries long (1394–2008 CE) streamflow reconstructions at three Upper Indus Basin gauges (Doyian, Gilgit, and Kachora), concurrently demonstrating that Hierarchical Bayesian Regression can be used to reconstruct short records with interspersed missing data. At one gauge (Partab Bridge), with a longer instrumental record (47 years), we develop reconstructions using both Bayesian regression and the more conventionally used principal components regression. The reconstructions produced by principal components regression and Bayesian regression at Partab Bridge are nearly identical and yield comparable reconstruction skill statistics, highlighting that the resulting tree ring reconstruction of streamflow is not dependent on the choice of statistical method. Reconstructions at all four reconstructions indicate that flow levels in the 1990s were higher than mean flow for the past six centuries. While streamflow appears most sensitive to accumulated winter (January–March) precipitation and summer (May–September) temperature, with warm summers contributing to high flow through increased melt of snow and glaciers, shifts in winter precipitation and summer temperatures cannot explain the anomalously high flow during the 1990s. Regardless, the sensitivity of streamflow to summer temperatures suggests that projected warming may increase streamflow in coming decades, though long‐term water risk will additionally depend on changes in snowfall and glacial mass balance.

Tree-rings are an important tool for the investigation of paleoclimatic records for regions or periods of time with no instrumental climatic data. However, the responses of different species and sites to various climatic parameters are unusual. In the present study, we developed tree-ring-width chronologies of Cedrus deodara from three different sites of Chitral Hindukush range of Pakistan. The study was conducted to understand tree-growth climate relationship and its applicability in proxy climate investigations. The chronologies covered the past 469 to 595 years, with a mean segment length (MSL) ranging from 148 to 223 years. Climatic data obtained from the three weather stations showed strong correlation and was found useful for tree-ring climate relationships. Correlation Function (CF) and Response Function (RF) analysis showed that spring precipitation (March-May) is a critical limiting factor for tree-ring growth, and temperature prior to November may also play a major role in affecting tree ring-growth. The results exposed that the three sites have continuous relationship indicated that only single species from different locations are affected by the same environmental variables and hence can be used in climate reconstruction in combination. The Cedrus deodara chronologies developed at different locations had several corresponding narrow and wide marker rings indicating a large macroclimatic response to regional climatic conditions. The current study suggests that the tree-rings of Cedrus deodara from the Chitral Hindukush range could be used to develop chronologies for the reconstruction of seasonal climatic variables.

Monotheca buxifolia (Falc.) A. DC., a wild edible fruit-yielding tree species, has economic and ecological importance, yet there is a lack of studies concerning its distribution pattern and regeneration dynamics at a larger-scale. This study aims to produce the first country-level classification of Monotheca forests based on their unique floristic composition and influential abiotic factors, besides their natural regeneration dynamics, across the environmentally diverse landscapes in Pakistan. For this purpose, floristic inventory was carried out in 440 plots where environmental variables, stand dendrometric characteristics and woody-species regeneration were recorded. During this survey, 3789 individuals of 27 woody tree species belonging to 25 genera and 22 families were sampled. These native and exotic tree species were mostly dicot (73%) with predominately mega-phanerophytic (88%) lifeforms, which largely reflect strong chorological differentiation and distinct linkage (55%) to the Sino-Japanese phytogeographical region. M. buxifolia and co-occurring species exhibiting similar environmental affinities were grouped into four ecologically distinct communities by Ward’s cluster analysis. Ordinations further highlight the special effects of topographic and edaphic factors besides anthropogenic interference on the sampled plots. Generally, Monotheca stands were moderately dense, with the average density varying considerably, ranging from 296 to 325 individuals/ha, with basal area ranging from 41.26 to 93.35 m2 ha−1. In the understory stratum, natural regeneration of Monotheca was mostly scant and mainly covered by Dodonaea shrubs. Size class structure of the dominant species shows pronounced effect of anthropogenic intervention as reflected by the presence of fewer individuals of juveniles and larger trees. Overall, the cut stump frequency was higher at juvenile and mature stages, which may be attributed to over-harvesting and extraction of fuelwood apart from the adverse effect of climate change in the region. We concluded that both topographic and edaphic factors coupled with biotic interventions are more influential in the distribution and persistence of M. buxifolia and co-occurring woody species and might be considered in its restoration and conservation. Thus, we recommend an urgent management plan to favor Monotheca regeneration for allowing the renewal of these rapidly declining remnant stands in Pakistan.