The study confirms that the forecast quality of social-economic indicators estimated with multiple linear models does not often seem to be satisfactory. The coefficients of regression-differential models are poorly interpreted economically. This paper covers the issue of improving the forecast quality by modifying regression-differential models to the sum of linear and autoregressive models. For brevity, the resulting models are called finite-differential models of the first-and second-orders, respectively. The authors use the coefficients of multiple linear models for an initial estimate when they determine the unknown coefficients of finite-differential models. The performance of the suggested method is tested with 60 sets of statistical data. The study proves that the use of the first-order finite-differential model results in the significant increase in the quality of forecasting and reduction of the approximation error for 65 per cent of cases, and there are 80 per cent of cases when a second-order finite-differential model is used. This indicates that the authors suggest a valid modification of the algorithm for determining the coefficients of models so that it can be used in further research

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The article is about a problem of mathematical modeling of the natural resource potential of the Perm Territory by 1st and 2nd order finite-difference models. Such models can obtain better forecasts of complex socio-economic processes in comparison with the traditionally used linear multiple regression models. A high quality model of the natural resource potential with forecast possibi¬lities is one of the necessary conditions for the effective management of the natural resources of the region in order to ensure its sustainable economic development. Purpose of work. Aim of this work is work construction of finite-difference models of a natural resource potential complex indicators and an assessment of their prognostic properties. Materials and methods. Our research is based on Perm region statistical data for the period from 2001 to 2018. A multiple linear regression model is used as a comparison base. The natural resource potential complex indicator is calculated as a weighted sum of particular criteria characterizing the natural resources of the region. First and second order finite difference models are obtained by adding autoregressive terms of the first and second orders, respectively, to the multiple linear regression model. An estimation of the unknown parameters of the equations is carried out by a modified least squares method, which preserves the signs of the coefficients with the factors the same as in the original linear model. At the same time, the selection of explanatory factors and the assessment of the quality of the models are carried out based on the accuracy of the predicted values of the studied indicator. The results of the study. Components and factors of the natural resource potential is obtained, and a procedure for constructing finite-difference models is performed for three different time intervals: 2001–2018, 2001–2008, and 2008–2018. These intervals are chooseen because changes in the methodology for generating statistical data nearly 2008. Discussion and conclusions. The number of calculated predicted values was 18, and only in 4 out of 18 cases (22,2%) their quality is worse than forecasts obtained by the linear multiple model. So proposed modification of the multiple linear regression model with the addition of autoregressive terms makes it possible to improve the forecasting quality of the complex indicator of the natural resource potential of the region and, therefore, to make more effective decisions when managing its level.

In the issue we consider socio-economic processes modeling based on first and second order finite differences models. Since commonly used modeling methods have drawbacks and thus are not universal it was necessary to develop alternative methods which are better in some aspects. Specifically multiple linear regression models have limited prediction abilities, and differential regression coefficient evaluation method is quite complex and have some economically uninterpreted excess tunings. In our research we replaced first and second order derivatives in differential regression models with their finite differences equivalents and thus gained a multiple linear regression model modification which includes first and second order auto regression items. Estimation of their parameters can be done using a modification of least-squares method in which we demand that factor coefficients signs for models with and without auto regression items are the same. Due to additional items in the modified linear regression models their approximation capacity is greater than of a common model. However for application purposes model forecasting capacity is more important, i.e. the forecasting efficiency criterion is the most significant for a decision making. In order to estimate forecasting potential of modified multiple linear regression models we performed coefficient estimation of unmodified and modified equations for 59 various socio-economic data sets. We used shortened time series, so we could calculate model values and compare them to actual data. It was determined that modified multiple linear regression models allowed to make better predictions in 49 (76.3 %) cases. We can now assume that addition of auto regression items into multiple linear regression model can increase short-term forecasting efficiency.