In a changing environment, the maintenance of communities is subject to many constraints (phenology, resources, climate, etc.). One such constraint is the relationship between conspecifics and competitors. In mixed colonies, seabirds may have to cope with interspecific and intraspecific competition for both space and food resources. We applied competitive interaction models to data on three seabird breeding populations: black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), common guillemot (Uria aalge) and Brünnich's guillemot (Uria lomvia) collected over 27-years at Kharlov Island in the Barents Sea. We found a competitive effect only for the kittiwake breeding population size on the common guillemot breeding population size when kittiwakes were abundant. The timing of kittiwake breeding negatively affected the number of breeding Brünnich's guillemots. The timing of breeding was negatively correlated to biomass of the main pelagic fish in the Barents Sea, the capelin (Mallotus villosus), which suggests an indirect action. The community matrix shows that the community was not stable. The kittiwake population did not decrease as seen in north Norwegian populations. Likewise, the common guillemot population, after a crash in 1985, was recovering at Kharlov while Norwegian populations were decreasing. Only the Brünnich's guillemot showed a decrease at Kharlov until 1999. We suggest that the stability of the kittiwake and common guillemot populations at Kharlov is due to better feeding conditions than in colonies of the Norwegian coast, linked to a possible eastward shift of the capelin population with the temperature increase of the Barents Sea.
Recent published estimates of the numbers of seabirds breeding along the coast of Murman have been partly based on data collected in the 1960s. Counts made in some of the largest colonies in 1999–2005 show that the present populations of black‐legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla), common guillemots (Uria aalge) and Brünnich’s guillemot (U. lomvia) in Murman are approximately 110 000 pairs, 10 000–12 000 pairs and 2000–3000 pairs, respectively. In Varanger the numbers are ca. 32 000 pairs, 6000–7000 pairs and 400–500 pairs, respectively. Although there has been a large decline in black‐legged kittiwake numbers in the Varanger region since 1980, there is no evidence of a similar decline in Murman at least until 1999. With the exception of one colony in Murman, numbers of common guillemots breeding throughout the region seem to have recovered after suffering a huge decline in 1986/87.
Objective: to improve the efficiency of differential diagnosis of chronic pulmonary aspergillosis (СPA) based on the assessment of its probability using a discriminant mathematical model. Material and methods. The prospective study included 74 patients with CPA (57% women, median age 53 years) meeting the ERS/ESCMID criteria (2016). The control group consisted of 35 patients with lung diseases without CPA. Clinical and anamnestic data, the results of computed tomography (CT), laboratory and instrumental methods of research were analysed. By means of stepwise discriminant analysis, the model was created in order to differentiate compared groups. Results. The main forms of CPA were simple solitary aspergilloma (n = 30, 40%) and cavitary CPA (n = 21, 28%). On CT scans, in patients with CPA pulmonary emphysema (n = 50, 74%; 95% CI 63–83), bronchiectasis (n = 42, 56%; 95% CI 44–67), pleura thickening (n = 40, 56%; 95% CI 42–65) were detected with a high frequency. The sensitivity and specificity of typical for CPA air sickle symptom were 66.2% and 74.29%, respectively. The diagnostic informativeness of laboratory methods was characterized by high specificity (85–100%), however, it had sensitivity 40–60%. A discriminant model was worked up. It included five variables: mycological confirmation of the diagnosis (р < 0.001), air sickle symptom on CT (p = 0.03), ground glass opacity sympton on CT (p = 0.017), accompanying rheumatological diseases (p = 0,031), positive Aspergillus antigen in bronchoalveolar lavage (p = 0.036). The resulting model of differential diagnosis is statistically significant (F = (5.102) = 27.291; p < 0.001). Conclusion. CT-patterns of CPA include typical (air sickle symptom) and nonspecific (pleura thickening, emphysema, bronchiectasis) changes. Separately taken laboratory indicators and CT-symptoms are not always the determining criteria for diagnosis; an integrated approach is required to make a diagnosis. The proposed model improves the accuracy of differential diagnosis between CPA and nonmycotic lung diseases: increases sensitivity to 82.43%, specificity to 94.28% in comparison with separately analyzed laboratory data and typical CT-pattern of air sickle symptom. As a whole this model allows to classify the CPA and nonmycotic lung disease in 86,23% of cases.
Recent published estimates of the numbers of seabirds breeding along the coast of Murman have been partly based on data collected in the 1960s. Counts made in some of the largest colonies in 1999-2005 show that the present populations of black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla), common guillemots (Uria aalge) and Brünnich's guillemot (U. lomvia) in Murman are approximately 110 000 pairs, 10 000-12 000 pairs and 2000-3000 pairs, respectively. In Varanger the numbers are ca. 32 000 pairs, 6000-7000 pairs and 400-500 pairs, respectively. Although there has been a large decline in black-legged kittiwake numbers in the Varanger region since 1980, there is no evidence of a similar decline in Murman at least until 1999. With the exception of one colony in Murman, numbers of common guillemots breeding throughout the region seem to have recovered after suffering a huge decline in 1986/87.
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