Purpose. The aim of the article is to identify the benefits of the chosen strategy of agribusiness (profit maximization, or yield maximization) based on the statistical observations of yields and production factors (fertilizers, plant protection products). Methodology / approach. To analyze productivity growth in grain production under the influence of innovative technologies the data of long-term observations of winter wheat yield in Germany and the United States were selected. In this paper, to analyze the prerequisites and prospects for stabilizing of the crop production, mineral fertilizers and plant protection products were selected as production factors affecting the yield of wheat. Methods of time series analysis and nonlinear econometric analysis were used to assess the impact of these factors. Long-term trends of growth of wheat yields in Germany, the USA and Ukraine were analyzed using regression models. The general model of agrarian business profitability in grain production is based on non-linear correlations of individual factors of intensification and panel regression. In order to substantiate the conclusions of the calculation, the estimation of climatic risks is used. For this purpose, dispersion methods, nonlinear optimization methodology are used. Results. Estimates of wheat yield fluctuations due to climate risks show that they will not significantly affect the problem of food security, so there is no need to impose restrictions on the export of wheat. On the choice of optimal strategy, based on analysis using econometric model of decreasing marginal utility of production resources, it is proved that the maximization of yields is achieved at lower costs than profit maximization. Originality / scientific novelty. The main contribution of the article to the level of application is to analyze the impact of production factors on wheat yield, taking into account climatic risk and reducing the marginal utility of production factors. At the theoretical level of the study, it represents a contribution to the discussion of the vectors of the optimal path of wheat production in Ukraine. Analysis of data on wheat yield variability in Germany and the USA showed correlation of profitability and risk (indicators of expected yield and its variance). However, this means that an increase in wheat yields in Ukraine will also increase its variability and therefore requires the implementation of a long-term strategy that can ensure stable growth. Practical value / implications. Based on the above calculations, it should be emphasized that the Ukrainian agrarian business (in particular, crop production) is developing its own way, not following the development path of Germany or the USA. However, some peculiarities of the development can be highlighted. After a rather long recession, the agricultural sector has embarked on a path of stable growth with an annual increase in wheat yields of around 1 hundred kg/ha. Furthermore, the extremely low proportion of forested land in Ukraine by European standards significantly increases the impact of weather and climate risks. Therefore, a further intensification of crop production while increasing the share of forested land at the expense of less productive land is probably the way to an ecologically balanced development of agriculture.

The paper offers the calculation procedure of the integrated Food Security Index (FSI) based on the three-component analysis: economic accessibility, physical security, the sufficiency of consumption. It offers the methodology for forecasting under the conditions of macroeconomic instability based on the Food Security Indices. It shows that the standard forecasting methodology based on the separation of trend (deterministic) and random components cannot be applied in conditions of alternating intervals of economic growth and crises. In particular emphasis is placed on Jackson-Watson's methodology, which is based on the analysis of the internal structure of the process. The three-parameter ARIMA model was used in the forecast estimates of the Food Security Indices. The applied methods are complemented by exponential smoothing, damped trend model, linear and exponential smoothing, namely, Brown method, and two-parameter smoothing method (Holt's method), Pearl-Reed curve model. The research offers a food security risk assessment procedure in virtue of the econometric forecast error properties. Based on data mining, the results of forecasting the individual indices and the integrated Food Security Index make it possible to state a satisfactory condition that is unlikely to change shortly.

The aim of this paper was to determine the mechanisms of climate change impact on the yield of the main exportoriented crops in the agro-climatic zones of Ukraine. The study of the problem of changing the acreage of the main export-oriented crops was conducted according to the data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine on the time horizon 2000-2018 in the following order: first, the dynamics of the change of the acreage under corn, sunflower and wheat by the agro-climatic zones of Ukraine was analyzed; secondly, the trends of yield changes of these crops were investigated based on the increase in the difference in yields between the northern and southern zones; and, finally, the temporal and spatial expansion in the area of crop propagation were investigated by applying the panel regression method. The findings obtained indicate that the applied models confirm the assumption of the effects of climate change on crop yield changes and the zones expansion in the northern direction. If the country's wheat area can be considered stable (variation is insignificant), then the corn and sunflower areas have grown steadily under the influence of increasing demand from national and world markets. At the same time, the growing acreage under corn and sunflower occurred in all climatic zones. Stable expansion of corn crops in the north direction in all three agroclimatic zones of Ukraine has been statistically confirmed. The article presents the findings of empirical analysis, which confirm that if the boundaries of soil and climatic zones change, the conditions of growing crops and their yield will consequently change as well. Thus, based on current global forecasts, the impact of weather on Ukraine's agriculture will increase, and the most negative effects can be expected in the Steppe zone, where the likelihood of weather and climate risks increases, requiring the development of adaptation and mitigation measures as well as exploitation of new potential opportunities that are being opened. Studies have shown that there is an expansion in crops to the north and a change in their pattern, including a significant increase in the area under corn.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the justification of objective assessment of the agricultural sector energetic potential, and the increasing of the accuracy of assessments results of energy resources of plant by-products. Design/methodology/approach The study of the problems of bioenergetic potential assessment in the study is carried out in the following order: first, the potential is assessed based upon the 2005-2017 year’s observation data; second, the energetic potential is assessed based upon linear and nonlinear optimization model; and finally, the assessment of the bioenergetic potential predicted values is carried out under the condition of the current pace of development of agricultural business by 2035. Findings The findings show that the solving of optimization tasks enabled us to make a comparison of the real structure of agricultural production and to justify the optimal structure of the cultivated areas under the conditions of agricultural business profit maximization with due allowance for both main and additional energy products. Using the linear trend model the predicted value of the agricultural sector energetic potential by the year 2035 is obtained. However, it is far more likely that the domestic bioenergetics will take a slower pace of development and to satisfy its own energy demands. Practical implications Based on the data of the reference interval of 2005-2018, the predicted values of biomass for 2035 were obtained in the amount of 28 million tons of oil equivalent, which taking into account the indices of generation efficiency, is sufficient to produce 104 billion kW-h. Social implications The use of biomass for energy generation can impact the local environment, for example, by affecting air quality, biodiversity, habitats and ecosystems and water quantity and quality and by changing the local use of land. Social impacts also may arise, notably by affecting local community livelihoods (for example, access to and use of land and resources), food security and economic parameters such as employment and poverty. Originality/value The paper presents for the first time the results of the empiric analysis of the Ukrainian sector bioenergetic potential formation that showed that even with respect to the losses during the energy generation, the agricultural production energetic potential will be enough to substitute nuclear national power engineering.

Purpose. The paper’s purpose is to analyze and predict the food security index in Ukraine and to estimate the risk level of its reduction. Methodology / approach. The following models are used for forecasting: the Holt’s two-parameter model – to forecast the dynamics of caloric content of the daily diet and integral food security index; the ARIMA model – for modeling the food economic affordability. The autocorrelation function structure analysis is used to determine the adequacy of the models. The article discusses the procedure of assessing food security risk based on the properties of the econometric forecast error. The annual data of Ukraine were used for assessing the forecasts for the time interval between 1995 and 2018. Results. The paper presents the results of predicting the food security index in the context of macroeconomic instability. The trend (deterministic) and random components for the level of calorie consumption are revealed. The forecast of food availability is presented. The forecast estimates of the Food Security Index of Ukraine for the period up to 2022 are considered. The assessment of price elasticities, household incomes and inflation for basic food products is made. As a result of assessing the level of macroeconomic instability, the structural elements of food security for Ukraine were identified. The article assesses the dynamics of changes in consumption of certain commodity items of foodstuff as components of food security. There is a creation of an alternative methodology for forecasting individual economic indices in the absence of stable trends in the economy of the country based on the use of econometric analysis proposed in the research. It substantiates the use of multi-step methods of forecasting economic indices. It is proved that the integrated forecast of the food security index of Ukraine is in satisfactory state and shows a slight upward trend during the period 2020–2022, but the risks of a decline in the integral index are somewhere beyond satisfactory. Originality / scientific novelty. The results of the individual food security indices forecast, and the integral Food Security Index of Ukraine analysis it is possible to state a satisfactory condition that is unlikely to change in the near future. The alternative forecasting method for individual economic parameters in conditions of the unstable national economy trends is firstly proposed. Practical value / implications. The reported forecast values indicate a decrease in the adequacy of consumption for most foodstuffs. This is most pronounced for the consumption of products of animal origin, which are far from the norm. The non-structural forecasts indicate current trends in the state of food security, which will persist if the impact on the food system by the general state of the country's economy remains unchanged. The main results of the study can be used to estimate the food affordability risks and risks of health deterioration for the population.