This article is devoted to building of the equilibrium model between demand and supply on foreign currency at the Ukrainian Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (non-cash share). The authors discussed that appeared trade-offs are a product of established current foreign arrangement, administrative measures provided by the National Bank of Ukraine and range of fundamental variables, which are traditionally significant for Ukrainian economy. By means of FAVAR modeling model of demand and supply equlibrium on non-cash foreign currency was built on empirical data of Ukrainian Interbank Foreign Exchange Market, splitted into the periods, proposed by the authors. Next, it was discussed disconnection properties in the model and shown log-linearized specification of the one. The efficiency of fulfillment hypothesis on decointegrating of the fundamental variables' time series has been provided in form of critical statistics values. Also, instrument of GAP analysis of deviation from equilibrium state was proposed and the further analysis of a regulation style of monetary authority was provided. In conclusion, it was summarized that increased share of the cash out of the banks has significantly jeopardized the price stability in Ukraine and the NBU interventions would become more effective if the flexible foreign exchange rate will be accompanied with flexible regime of inflation targeting.
Introduction. The high openness level of the Ukrainian economy determines the necessity of join to the worldwide financial integration by means of gradual liberalization as a part of the foreign currency exchange arrangements reform. Purpose. The main aim of the paper is to develop methodological and applied principles for the foreign currency exchange liberalization in Ukraine. Results. It has been summarized the liberalization advantages and disadvantages, identified current economic items which prevent to achieve the liberalization positive consequences in Ukraine, defined the favorable sequence of the liberalization steps in Ukraine which also contains measures of recognizing foreign currency exchange transactions aimed for capital outflow. For successful liberalization it is necessary to enroot a precondition complex which is consists of economic, monetary, financial and institutional reforms. Conclusion. Tht main goals of the liberalization in Ukraine are the next: to attract the long-term capital inflows from developed economies, to obtain access to the global financial markets, to take liberalization advantages and to reduce its disadvantages and risks.
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