We analyzed long‐term time series of temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations collected along the Palagruža Sill transect (middle Adriatic) between 1952 and 2010. The data have been mostly collected on seasonal basis, allowing for extraction of seasonal signal from the series. By applying Self‐Organizing Maps (SOM) method, a kind of unsupervised neural network method, the processes on a decadal time scale emerged as the most relevant for changes of oceanographic properties in the middle Adriatic area. Sensitivity studies revealed that oceanographic patterns obtained by SOM were not sensitive to shortening of time series, to removal of data from one station or to removal of DO from the analysis. Simultaneous SOM‐based mapping of sea surface heights in the northern Ionian Sea, with these heights serving as a proxy for the Adriatic‐Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS), revealed asymmetry between anticyclonic and cyclonic BiOS patterns and correlated the decadal oscillations in the middle Adriatic with the reversals in the BiOS circulation regimes. These reversals are found to either rapidly change oceanographic properties in the middle Adriatic (e.g., during the Eastern Mediterranean Transient) or to change them with a time lag of 2–3 years. The mapped connections may be used for a short‐time (a few years) forecasting of the Adriatic oceanographic properties or for mapping future climate decadal oscillations as seen by ocean climate models.

Annual growth increments formed in bivalve shells are increasingly used as proxies of environmental variability and change in marine ecosystems, especially at higher latitudes. Here, we document that well-replicated and exactly dated chronologies can also be developed to capture oceanographic processes in temperate and semi-enclosed seas, such as the Mediterranean. A chronology is constructed for Glycymeris pilosa from a shallow embayment of the northern Adriatic and extends from 1979 to 2016. The chronology significantly (p < 0.05) and positively correlates to winter sea surface temperatures, but negatively correlates to summer temperatures, which suggests that extreme winter lows and extreme summer highs may be limiting to growth. However, the strongest and most consistent relationships are negative correlations with an index of the Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS) for which positive values indicate the inflow of the ultraoligotrophic Eastern Mediterranean waters to the Adriatic. In contrast, the substantial freshwater flows that discharge into the Adriatic do not correlate to the bivalve chronology, emphasizing the importance of remote oceanographic processes to growth at this highly coastal site. Overall, this study underscores the potential of bivalve chronologies to capture biologically relevant, local- to regional-scale patterns of ocean circulation in mid-latitude, temperate systems.

Abstract. The paper investigates the wintertime dynamics of the coastal northeastern Adriatic Sea and is based on numerical modelling and in situ data collected through field campaigns executed during the winter and spring of 2015. The data were collected with a variety of instruments and platforms (acoustic Doppler current profilers, conductivity–temperature–depth probes, glider, profiling float) and are accompanied by the atmosphere–ocean ALADIN/ROMS modelling system. The research focused on the dense-water formation (DWF), thermal changes, circulation, and water exchange between the coastal and open Adriatic. According to both observations and modelling results, dense waters are formed in the northeastern coastal Adriatic during cold bora outbreaks. However, the dense water formed in this coastal region has lower densities than the dense water formed in the open Adriatic due to lower salinities. Since the coastal area is deeper than the open Adriatic, the observations indicate (i) balanced inward–outward exchange at the deep connecting channels of denser waters coming from the open Adriatic DWF site and less-dense waters coming from the coastal region and (ii) outward flow of less-dense waters dominating in the intermediate and surface layers. The latter phenomenon was confirmed by the model, even if it significantly underestimates the currents and transports in the connecting channels. The median residence time of the coastal area is estimated to be approximately 20 days, indicating that the coastal area may be renewed relatively quickly by the open Adriatic waters. The data that were obtained represent a comprehensive marine dataset that can be used to calibrate atmospheric and oceanic numerical models and point to several interesting phenomena to be investigated in the future.

A climate synoptic meteotsunami index has been constructed using synoptic variables for the Balearic Islands. The index allows for the very first assessment of atmospherically driven intense sea level oscillations at the tsunami timescale (<2 hr) in future climates. The index has been computed using outputs from evaluation, historical, and three scenario MED‐11_CNRM Med‐CORDEX regional atmospheric climate runs. The reliability of the index has been verified against reanalysis simulations and on documented meteotsunami events. No significant changes in the index are projected under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, while the yearly number of days with meteotsunamis is expected to increase by 34% under the RCP8.5 scenario by the year 2100. This increase will dominantly occur during the summer season (May–August), being contemporaneous with maximum index values. The presented results are relevant for assessment of sea level extremes worldwide, since high‐frequency sea level oscillations may contribute up to 40% of the total range.

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