Importance: A surge in severe cases of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) in children would present unique challenges for hospitals and public health preparedness efforts in the United States. Objective: To provide evidence-based estimates of children infected with SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) and projected cumulative numbers of severely ill pediatric COVID-19 cases requiring hospitalization during the US 2020 pandemic. Design: Empirical case projection study. Main Outcomes and Measures: Adjusted pediatric severity proportions and adjusted pediatric criticality proportions were derived from clinical and spatiotemporal modeling studies of the COVID-19 epidemic in China for the period January-February 2020. Estimates of total children infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the United States through April 6, 2020, were calculated using US pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) cases and the adjusted pediatric criticality proportion. Projected numbers of severely and critically ill children with COVID-19 were derived by applying the adjusted severity and criticality proportions to US population data, under several scenarios of cumulative pediatric infection proportion (CPIP). Results: By April 6, 2020, there were 74 children who had been reported admitted to PICUs in 19 states, reflecting an estimated 176 190 children nationwide infected with SARS-CoV-2 (52 381 infants and toddlers younger than 2 years, 42 857 children aged 2-11 years, and 80 952 children aged 12-17 years). Under a CPIP scenario of 5%, there would be 3.7 million children infected with SARS-CoV-2, 9907 severely ill children requiring hospitalization, and 1086 critically ill children requiring PICU admission. Under a CPIP scenario of 50%, 10 865 children would require PICU admission, 99 073 would require hospitalization for severe pneumonia, and 37.0 million would be infected with SARS-CoV-2. Conclusions and Relevance: Because there are 74.0 million children 0 to 17 years old in the United States, the projected numbers of severe cases could overextend available pediatric hospital care resources under several moderate CPIP scenarios for 2020 despite lower severity of COVID-19 in children than in adults.

BackgroundDiabetes (DM) is estimated to affect 10–15% of the adult population in the Caribbean. Preventive efforts require population wide measures to address its social determinants. We undertook a systematic review to determine current knowledge about the social distribution of diabetes, its risk factors and major complications in the Caribbean. This paper describes our findings on the distribution by gender.MethodsWe searched Medline, Embase and five databases through the Virtual Health Library, for Caribbean studies published between 2007 and 2013 that described the distribution by gender for: known risk factors for Type 2 DM, prevalence of DM, and DM control or complications. PRISMA guidance on reporting systematic reviews on health equity was followed. Only quantitative studies (n>50) were included; each was assessed for risk of bias. Meta-analyses were performed, where appropriate, on studies with a low or medium risk of bias, using random effects models.ResultsWe found 50 articles from 27 studies, yielding 118 relationships between gender and the outcomes. Women were more likely to have DM, obesity, be less physically active but less likely to smoke. In meta-analyses of good quality population-based studies odds ratios for women vs. men for DM, obesity and smoking were: 1.65 (95% CI 1.43, 1.91), 3.10 (2.43, 3.94), and 0.24 (0.17, 0.34). Three studies found men more likely to have better glycaemic control but only one achieved statistical significance.Conclusion and ImplicationsFemale gender is a determinant of DM prevalence in the Caribbean. In the vast majority of world regions women are at a similar or lower risk of type 2 diabetes than men, even when obesity is higher in women. Caribbean female excess of diabetes may be due to a much greater excess of risk factors in women, especially obesity. These findings have major implications for preventive policies and research.