No abstract

Kurzfassung Die in der Bevölkerung verbreitete assoziative Verknüpfung von Polizei und Kriminalität bzw. deren Bekämpfung gibt Anlass zur Vermutung, ein hohes Vertrauen in die Exekutive würde Verbrechensfurcht reduzieren. Die Belastbarkeit dieser »Beruhigungshypothese« kann anhand von Daten des Deutschen Viktimisierungssurveys 2017 empirisch geprüft werden. Die Resultate mehrerer Instrumentalvariablenanalysen sprechen gegen eine furchtpräventive Wirksamkeit des persönlichen Polizeivertrauens. Als maßgebliche Bestimmungsgröße des kriminalitätsbezogenen Sicherheitsempfindens erweist sich indes die Intensität ökonomisch konnotierter Abstiegsbefürchtungen.

The study expands empirical knowledge on nonresponse bias when estimating victimization rates by using latent class analysis (LCA). Based on information about proxy-nonrespondents (hard-to-reach respondents and soft refusals), the study identifies subgroup(s) of persons who are systematically underrepresented by refusal and unreachability and determines whether an over- or underestimation of different offense-specific crime rates (prevalence and incidence rates) is to be expected. Therefore, a broad review of the current state of research is carried out, followed by a nonresponse analysis of a large-scale victimization survey conducted in Germany (n = 35,503). The paper illustrates that a variety of factors must be considered when analyzing nonresponse in victimization surveys and that the current state of research does not allow definitive conclusions about the amount and direction of nonresponse bias. The following analysis shows that LCA constitutes an excellent approach to determine nonresponse bias in surveys. In each sample, one class of person was identified that is systematically underrepresented, both by refusal and unreachability. Here, victimization rates of violent crime tend to be significantly higher, indicating an underestimation of crime rates.