Transplant physicians and candidates have become increasingly aware that donor characteristics significantly impact liver transplantation outcomes. Although the qualitative effect of individual donor variables are understood, the quantitative risk associated with combinations of characteristics are unclear. Using national data from 1998 to 2002, we developed a quantitative donor risk index. Cox regression models identified seven donor characteristics that independently predicted significantly increased risk of graft failure. Donor age over 40 years (and particularly over 60 years), donation after cardiac death (DCD), and split/partial grafts were strongly associated with graft failure, while African-American race, less height, cerebrovascular accident and 'other' causes of brain death were more modestly but still significantly associated with graft failure. Grafts with an increased donor risk index have been preferentially transplanted into older candidates (>50 years of age) with moderate disease severity (nonstatus 1 with lower model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores) and without hepatitis C. Quantitative assessment of the risk of donor liver graft failure using a donor risk index is useful to inform the process of organ acceptance.

Context Solid organ transplant recipients have elevated cancer risk due to immunosuppression and oncogenic viral infections. Since most prior research has concerned kidney recipients, large studies that include recipients of differing organs can inform cancer etiology. Objective Describe the overall pattern of cancer among solid organ transplant recipients. Design Cohort study using linked data from the U.S. Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (1987–2008) and 13 state/regional cancer registries. Participants and Setting Solid organ transplant recipients in the U.S. Main Outcome Measure Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and excess absolute risks (EARs) assessing relative and absolute cancer risk in transplant recipients compared to the general population. Results Registry linkages yielded data on 175,732 solid organ transplants (58.4% kidney, 21.6% liver, 10.0% heart, 4.0% lung). Overall cancer risk was elevated (N=10,656 cases, incidence 1374.7 per 100,000 person-years; SIR 2.10, 95%CI 2.06–2.14; EAR 719.3, 95%CI 693.3–745.6, per 100,000 person-years). Risk was increased (p<0.001) for 32 different malignancies, some related to known infections (e.g., anal cancer, Kaposi sarcoma) and others unrelated (e.g., melanoma, thyroid and lip cancers). The most common malignancies with elevated risk were non-Hodgkin lymphoma (N=1504, incidence 194.0; SIR 7.54, 95%CI 7.17–7.93; EAR 168.3, 95%CI 158.6–178.4) and cancers of the lung (N=1344, incidence 173.4; SIR 1.97, 95%CI 1.86–2.08; EAR 85.3, 95%CI 76.2–94.8), liver (N=930, incidence 120.0; SIR 11.56, 95%CI 10.83–12.33; EAR 109.6, 95%CI 102.0–117.6), and kidney (N=752, incidence 97.0; SIR 4.65, 95%CI 4.32–4.99; EAR 76.1, 95%CI 69.3–83.3). Lung cancer risk was most elevated in lung recipients (SIR 6.13, 95%CI 5.18–7.21) but also increased among other recipients (SIR 1.46, 95%CI 1.34–1.59 for kidney; 1.95, 1.74–2.19 for liver; 2.67, 2.40–2.95 for heart). Liver cancer was elevated only among liver recipients (SIR 43.83, 95%CI 40.90–46.91), who manifested exceptional risk in the first 6 months (SIR 508.97, 95%CI 474.16–545.66) and continuing two-fold excess for 10–15 years (SIR 2.22, 95%CI 1.57–3.04). Among kidney recipients, kidney cancer was elevated (SIR 6.66, 95%CI 6.12–7.23) and bimodal in onset. Kidney cancer was also increased in liver and heart recipients (SIR 1.80, 95%CI 1.40–2.29, and 2.90, 2.32–3.59, respectively). Conclusions Recipients of a kidney, liver, heart, or lung transplant have an increased risk for diverse infection-related and unrelated cancers, compared with the general population.

The survival benefit of liver transplantation depends on candidate disease severity, as measured by MELD score. However, donor liver quality may also affect survival benefit. Using US data from the SRTR on 28165 adult liver transplant candidates wait-listed between 2001 and 2005, we estimated survival benefit according to cross-classifications of candidate MELD score and deceased donor risk index (DRI) using sequential stratification. Covariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) were calculated for each liver transplant recipient at a given MELD with an organ of a given DRI, comparing posttransplant mortality to continued wait-listing with possible later transplantation using a lower-DRI organ. High-DRI organs were more often transplanted into lower-MELD recipients and vice versa. Compared to waiting for a lower-DRI organ, the lowest-MELD category recipients (MELD 6-8) who received high-DRI organs experienced significantly higher mortality (HR = 3.70; p < 0.0005). All recipients with MELD ≥20 had a significant survival benefit from transplantation, regardless of DRI. Transplantation of high-DRI organs is effective for high but not low-MELD candidates. Pairing of high-DRI livers with lower-MELD candidates fails to maximize survival benefit and may deny lifesaving organs to high-MELD candidates who are at high risk of death without transplantation.

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The annual number of DCD livers used for transplant has increased rapidly. However, DCD livers are associated with a significantly increased risk of graft failure unrelated to modifiable donor or recipient factors. Appropriate recipients for DCD livers have not been fully characterized and recipient informed consent should be obtained before use of these organs.