Significance This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.

One practical issue that must be addressed prior to the implementation of a vibration-based structural health monitoring system is the influence that variations in the structure's environmental and boundary conditions can have on the vibration response of the structure. This issue is especially prominent in the structural health monitoring of aircraft, which operate in a wide variety of different environmental conditions and possess complex structural components connected through various boundary conditions. However, many types of damage introduce nonlinear stiffness and damping restoring forces, which may be used to detect damage even in the midst of these varying conditions. Vibro-acoustic modulation is a nondestructive evaluation technique that is highly sensitivity to the presence of nonlinearities. One factor that complicates the use of vibro-acoustic modulation as a structural health monitoring technique is that the amount of measured modulation has been shown to be dependent on the frequency of the probing signal. The frequency dependence of the modulation was investigated and the magnitude of modulation was found to be correlated with the underlying vibration characteristics of the structure, which are influenced by environmental and boundary condition variations. To facilitate the use of nonlinear vibro-acoustics for the health monitoring of complex aerospace components in varying environments, a vibro-acoustic modulation technique utilizing a swept probing signal has been developed. The developed method was demonstrated on a steel beam in varying operational conditions. The presence of a crack in the beam was detected both through an increase in the amount of normalized modulation and without the use of historical data by utilizing generalized extreme value statistics.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multi-model ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of different research groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-week horizon 3-5 times larger than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks. Significance Statement This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the US. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models, and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public health action.

Collar-mounted canine activity monitors can use accelerometer data to estimate dog activity levels, step counts, and distance traveled. With recent advances in machine learning and embedded computing, much more nuanced and accurate behavior classification has become possible, giving these affordable consumer devices the potential to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of pet healthcare. Here, we describe a novel deep learning algorithm that classifies dog behavior at sub-second resolution using commercial pet activity monitors. We built machine learning training databases from more than 5000 videos of more than 2500 dogs and ran the algorithms in production on more than 11 million days of device data. We then surveyed project participants representing 10,550 dogs, which provided 163,110 event responses to validate real-world detection of eating and drinking behavior. The resultant algorithm displayed a sensitivity and specificity for detecting drinking behavior (0.949 and 0.999, respectively) and eating behavior (0.988, 0.983). We also demonstrated detection of licking (0.772, 0.990), petting (0.305, 0.991), rubbing (0.729, 0.996), scratching (0.870, 0.997), and sniffing (0.610, 0.968). We show that the devices’ position on the collar had no measurable impact on performance. In production, users reported a true positive rate of 95.3% for eating (among 1514 users), and of 94.9% for drinking (among 1491 users). The study demonstrates the accurate detection of important health-related canine behaviors using a collar-mounted accelerometer. We trained and validated our algorithms on a large and realistic training dataset, and we assessed and confirmed accuracy in production via user validation.

Offshore wind turbines are an attractive source for clean and renewable energy for reasons including their proximity to population centers and higher capacity factors. One obstacle to the more widespread installation of offshore wind turbines in the USA, however, is that recent projections of offshore operations and maintenance costs vary from two to five times the land-based costs. One way in which these costs could be reduced is through use of a structural health and prognostics management (SHPM) system as part of a condition-based maintenance paradigm with smart loads management. This paper contributes to the development of such strategies by developing an initial roadmap for SHPM, with application to the blades. One of the key elements of the approach is a multiscale simulation approach developed to identify how the underlying physics of the system are affected by the presence of damage and how these changes manifest themselves in the operational response of a full turbine. A case study of a trailing edge disbond is analysed to demonstrate the multiscale sensitivity of damage approach and to show the potential life extension and increased energy capture that can be achieved using simple changes in the overall turbine control and loads management strategy. The integration of health monitoring information, economic considerations such as repair costs versus state of health, and a smart loads management methodology provides an initial roadmap for reducing operations and maintenance costs for offshore wind farms while increasing turbine availability and overall profit.