Jordan Engineers Association, a Senior Member of IEEE, and a Chartered Engineer with IEE. Moreover, he is a member of the Institute of Management Consultants (IMC) and holds a Certified Management Consultant (CMC) title. In addition to teaching full-time, Dr Elkarmi conducts training in Jordan and abroad in strategic planning and business planning, project evaluation, performance improvement, start-up businesses, professional management consulting, electrical system development, tariff studies and investment planning, load research, energy and demand forecasting,
Electricity demand forecasting has attracted the attention of many researchers and power company staff. It still does so because with better forecasting, power companies can approach exact plans with no over- or –under planning. This is reflected as being the right investment in terms of time, money, and performance. In essence a good demand forecast means the right investment plan and therefore, satisfied customers. In reality this is the objective of any business; to be able to estimate the demand as close to reality as possible. The number and extent of demand forecasting methodologies and models developed is tremendous, however, there exists no novel technique that can serve all situations. Basically forecasting models can be divided into statistically based and intelligence-based models. A description of forecasting models helps in identifying the characteristics, features, and strengths of each model. The selection of the most suitable forecasting algorithm is not an easy process. The time frame of the forecast, data availability, the accuracy and cost of the forecast, the application and purpose of the forecast are some of the important parameters in the selection process. A case study of two forecasting models used in Jordan is presented. The discussion of the case study shows that load forecasting in Jordan is based on an intelligence-based model for short term forecasting, and on a combination of traditional statistically-based models for long term forecasting.
Forecasting is the backbone of any planning process in all fields of interest. It has a great impact on future decisions. It is also of great importance to the operation and control of business, which is reflected as profits or losses to the entity. This paper aims to provide the planner with sufficient knowledge and background of the different scopes of forecasting methods, in general, and when applied to power system field, in particular. Various load and energy forecasting models, and theoretical techniques are discussed from different perspectives, time frames, and levels. The paper presents the attributes and importance of forecasting through several cases of research conducted by the author for the Jordanian power system. In all cases the methodologies selected cover short, medium and long term forecasting periods and the results are accurate.
Technical and managerial viewpoints are important elements in the assessment and evaluation of project success. Project success can be measured by the level of achieving project objectives. A by-product of this process will lead to providing an independent and, unbiased opinion on the gains and losses attributed to the project. This may be interpreted as a way of performing a rough benefit/cost analysis. The process is done through addressing key issues that will lead to an action plan which serves in optimizing the sustainable benefits of the project and mitigate the negative aspects, or failures, of the project. The assessment and evaluation process must focus on providing the management and stakeholders involved in any project with solutions and directions that will serve in project success to achieve its objectives. The proposed methodology was used in the final evaluation of an energy efficiency program in a developing country. The overall objective achievement for the project reached about 80%, which is a good result. Moreover, the overall calculated B/C ratio for the project is 1.31, which indicates the wellbeing of that project
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