Background: One of the key indicators of a country's macroeconomic stability is certainly inflation. During the past year, there has been a general increase in inflation in Europe. The question arises as to how inflation affects other relevant indicators of the stability of a country. One of the most important indicators is gross domestic product. Purpose: This paper analyses the effect of the inflation rate on gross domestic product in the countries of the Western Balkans for the period 2006-2021, which includes the initial period of the emerging health crisis. Study design/methodology/approach: Official data from the World Bank was used to review the analysis of the state of inflation and gross domestic product. The same data was transformed into appropriate logarithms for proper econometric modelling. The methodology used to determine the effect of the inflation rate on the gross domestic product is multiple regression analysis with the ordinary least squares estimation method. Findings/conclusions: The results of the analysis indicate a positive effect of the gross domestic product deflator on economic growth in the sample countries, while the impact of inflation measured according to the consumer price index is not significant. Limitations/future research: Recommendations for decision-makers about inflation targeting, and further methodological approaches are given as part of the research conclusions.
During the pandemic caused by the new SARS-COV2 virus, the country's economic performance is lower than before the health crisis. The global health crisis has directly and indirectly affected the economic and financial indicators of almost all countries. Regardless of state financial aid, which inevitably prevented the collapse of the national economy and financial markets, certain economic sectors are still facing the consequences of the crisis. One of the reasons for the lower financial performance of countries in this period is the insufficient readiness of banks to deal with non-profitable loans. This study aims to consider the profitability of the banking sector concerning non-profitable loans in Serbia during the pandemic, using the methods of description, deduction, and regression. In addition, a comparison method was used to assess the ability of banks to deal with non-profitable loans during the previous global financial crisis. For statistical data processing, the official data of the National Bank of Serbia was extracted from the statistical section, as well as from annual and periodic reports. A linear regression model was used to measure the effect of the NPL on the banks' profitability in the period 2008-2021, after the regression assumptions had been successfully tested (such sample adequacy, distribution symmetry, and multicollinearity). Non-profitable loans, income from interest, ROA, and ROE are the variables used in regression modelling. The results showed that non-profitable loans do not have a statistically significant effect on banks' profitability
Stock exchange turnover growth increases the capital performance of a country. This paper examines the stock exchange turnover trends after the global financial crisis while considering the novel COVID-19 global crisis in the Republic of Serbia. Moreover, this paper estimates the correlation between the stock exchange turnover and GDP indicators. Since the COVID-19 crises is recent, the available official data for the last two years are not complete yet. Therefore, the aim of this research is to measure the impact of stock exchange turnover on economic growth in the Republic of Serbia for the period 2006-2020, with respective predictions. The methodological approach consists of the application of linear regression model, with previous statistical adequacy tests. The final results of this research indicate that the growth of stock exchange turnover has positive and statistically significant impact on GDP in this country. However, the prediction analysis indicates that the stock exchange turnover may have a negative impact on GDP in the next years, which is why there are several suggestions for decision makers and further research.
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