Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a major threat to human health around the world. Previous publications have estimated the effect of AMR on incidence, deaths, hospital length of stay, and health-care costs for specific pathogen-drug combinations in select locations. To our knowledge, this study presents the most comprehensive estimates of AMR burden to date. MethodsWe estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with bacterial AMR for 23 pathogens and 88 pathogen-drug combinations in 204 countries and territories in 2019. We obtained data from systematic literature reviews, hospital systems, surveillance systems, and other sources, covering 471 million individual records or isolates and 7585 study-location-years. We used predictive statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all locations, including for locations with no data. Our approach can be divided into five broad components: number of deaths where infection played a role, proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antibiotic of interest, and the excess risk of death or duration of an infection associated with this resistance. Using these components, we estimated disease burden based on two counterfactuals: deaths attributable to AMR (based on an alternative scenario in which all drugresistant infections were replaced by drug-susceptible infections), and deaths associated with AMR (based on an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by no infection). We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity. We present final estimates aggregated to the global and regional level. FindingsOn the basis of our predictive statistical models, there were an estimated 4•95 million (3•62-6•57) deaths associated with bacterial AMR in 2019, including 1•27 million (95% UI 0•911-1•71) deaths attributable to bacterial AMR. At the regional level, we estimated the all-age death rate attributable to resistance to be highest in western sub-Saharan Africa, at 27•3 deaths per 100 000 (20•9-35•3), and lowest in Australasia, at 6•5 deaths (4•3-9•4) per 100 000. Lower respiratory infections accounted for more than 1•5 million deaths associated with resistance in 2019, making it the most burdensome infectious syndrome. The six leading pathogens for deaths associated with resistance (Escherichia coli, followed by Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa) were responsible for 929 000 (660 000-1 270 000) deaths attributable to AMR and 3•57 million (2•62-4•78) deaths associated with AMR in 2019. One pathogen-drug combination, meticillinresistant S aureus, caused more than 100 000 deaths attributa...

BACKGROUND Plasmodium falciparum malaria is a pressing global health problem. A previous study of the malaria vaccine RTS,S (which targets the circumsporozoite protein), given with an adjuvant system (AS02A), showed a 30% rate of protection against clinical malaria in children 1 to 4 years of age. We evaluated the efficacy of RTS,S given with a more immunogenic adjuvant system (AS01E) in children 5 to 17 months of age, a target population for vaccine licensure. METHODS We conducted a double-blind, randomized trial of RTS,S/AS01E vaccine as compared with rabies vaccine in children in Kilifi, Kenya, and Korogwe, Tanzania. The primary end point was fever with a falciparum parasitemia density of more than 2500 parasites per microliter, and the mean duration of follow-up was 7.9 months (range, 4.5 to 10.5). RESULTS A total of 894 children were randomly assigned to receive the RTS,S/AS01E vaccine or the control (rabies) vaccine. Among the 809 children who completed the study procedures according to the protocol, the cumulative number in whom clinical malaria developed was 32 of 402 assigned to receive RTS,S/AS01E and 66 of 407 assigned to receive the rabies vaccine; the adjusted efficacy rate for RTS,S/AS01E was 53% (95% confidence interval [CI], 28 to 69; P<0.001) on the basis of Cox regression. Overall, there were 38 episodes of clinical malaria among recipients of RTS,S/AS01E, as compared with 86 episodes among recipients of the rabies vaccine, with an adjusted rate of efficacy against all malarial episodes of 56% (95% CI, 31 to 72; P<0.001). All 894 children were included in the intention-to-treat analysis, which showed an unadjusted efficacy rate of 49% (95% CI, 26 to 65; P<0.001). There were fewer serious adverse events among recipients of RTS,S/AS01E, and this reduction was not only due to a difference in the number of admissions directly attributable to malaria. CONCLUSIONS RTS,S/AS01E shows promise as a candidate malaria vaccine. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00380393.)

Summary Background Ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10), delivered at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age was introduced in Kenya in January, 2011, accompanied by a catch-up campaign in Kilifi County for children aged younger than 5 years. Coverage with at least two PCV10 doses in children aged 2–11 months was 80% in 2011 and 84% in 2016; coverage with at least one dose in children aged 12–59 months was 66% in 2011 and 87% in 2016. We aimed to assess PCV10 effect against nasopharyngeal carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in children and adults in Kilifi County. Methods This study was done at the KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme among residents of the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, a rural community on the Kenyan coast covering an area of 891 km 2 . We linked clinical and microbiological surveillance for IPD among admissions of all ages at Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya, which serves the community, to the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System from 1999 to 2016. We calculated the incidence rate ratio (IRR) comparing the prevaccine (Jan 1, 1999–Dec 31, 2010) and postvaccine (Jan 1, 2012–Dec 31, 2016) eras, adjusted for confounding, and reported percentage reduction in IPD as 1 minus IRR. Annual cross-sectional surveys of nasopharyngeal carriage were done from 2009 to 2016. Findings Surveillance identified 667 cases of IPD in 3 211 403 person-years of observation. Yearly IPD incidence in children younger than 5 years reduced sharply in 2011 following vaccine introduction and remained low (PCV10-type IPD: 60·8 cases per 100 000 in the prevaccine era vs 3·2 per 100 000 in the postvaccine era [adjusted IRR 0·08, 95% CI 0·03–0·22]; IPD caused by any serotype: 81·6 per 100 000 vs 15·3 per 100 000 [0·32, 0·17–0·60]). PCV10-type IPD also declined in the post-vaccination era in unvaccinated age groups (<2 months [no cases in the postvaccine era], 5–14 years [adjusted IRR 0·26, 95% CI 0·11–0·59], and ≥15 years [0·19, 0·07–0·51]). Incidence of non-PCV10-type IPD did not differ between eras. In children younger than 5 years, PCV10-type carriage declined between eras (age-standardised adjusted prevalence ratio 0·26, 95% CI 0·19–0·35) and non-PCV10-type carriage increased (1·71, 1·47–1·99). Interpretation Introduction of PCV10 in Kenya, accompanied by a catch-up campaign, resulted in a substantial reduction in PCV10-type IPD in children and adults without significant replacement disease. Although the catch-up campaign is likely to have brought forward the benefits by several years, the study suggests that routine infant PCV10 immunisation programmes will provide substantial direct and indirect protection in low-income settings in tropical Africa. Funding Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance and The Wellcome Trust of Great Britain.

SummaryBackgroundChildren with complicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM) have a greatly increased risk of mortality from infections while in hospital and after discharge. In HIV-infected children, mortality and admission to hospital are prevented by daily co-trimoxazole prophylaxis, despite locally reported bacterial resistance to co-trimoxazole. We aimed to assess the efficacy of daily co-trimoxazole prophylaxis on survival in children without HIV being treated for complicated SAM.MethodsWe did a multicentre, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled study in four hospitals in Kenya (two rural hospitals in Kilifi and Malindi, and two urban hospitals in Mombasa and Nairobi) with children aged 60 days to 59 months without HIV admitted to hospital and diagnosed with SAM. We randomly assigned eligible participants (1:1) to 6 months of either daily oral co-trimoxazole prophylaxis (given as water-dispersible tablets; 120 mg per day for age <6 months, 240 mg per day for age 6 months to 5 years) or matching placebo. Assignment was done with computer-generated randomisation in permuted blocks of 20, stratified by centre and age younger or older than 6 months. Treatment allocation was concealed in opaque, sealed envelopes and patients, their families, and all trial staff were masked to treatment assignment. Children were given recommended medical care and feeding, and followed up for 12 months. The primary endpoint was mortality, assessed each month for the first 6 months, then every 2 months for the second 6 months. Secondary endpoints were nutritional recovery, readmission to hospital, and illness episodes treated as an outpatient. Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00934492.FindingsBetween Nov 20, 2009, and March 14, 2013, we recruited and assigned 1778 eligible children to treatment (887 to co-trimoxazole prophylaxis and 891 to placebo). Median age was 11 months (IQR 7–16 months), 306 (17%) were younger than 6 months, 300 (17%) had oedematous malnutrition (kwashiorkor), and 1221 (69%) were stunted (length-for-age Z score <–2). During 1527 child-years of observation, 122 (14%) of 887 children in the co-trimoxazole group died, compared with 135 (15%) of 891 in the placebo group (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·90, 95% CI 0·71–1·16, p=0·429; 16·0 vs 17·7 events per 100 child-years observed (CYO); difference −1·7 events per 100 CYO, 95% CI −5·8 to 2·4]). In the first 6 months of the study (while participants received study medication), 63 suspected grade 3 or 4 associated adverse events were recorded among 57 (3%) children; 31 (2%) in the co-trimoxazole group and 32 (2%) in the placebo group (incidence rate ratio 0·98, 95% CI 0·58–1·65). The most common adverse events of these grades were urticarial rash (grade 3, equally common in both groups), neutropenia (grade 4, more common in the co-trimoxazole group), and anaemia (both grades equally common in both groups). One child in the placebo group had fatal toxic epidermal necrolysis with concurrent Pseudomonas ...

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