The number of dengue fever incidence and its distribution has increased considerably in recent years in Africa. However, due to inadequate research at the continental level, there is a limited understanding regarding the current and future spatial distribution of the main vector, the mosquitoAedes aegypti, and the associated dengue risk due to climate change. To fill this gap we used reported dengue fever incidences, the presence of Ae. aegypti, and bioclimatic variables in a species distribution model to assess the current and future (2050 and 2070) climatically suitable areas. High temperatures and with high moisture levels are climatically suitable for the distribution of Ae. aegypti related to dengue fever. Under the current climate scenario indicated that 15.2% of the continent is highly suitable for dengue fever outbreaks. We predict that climatically suitable areas for Ae. aegypti related to dengue fever incidences in eastern, central and western part of Africa will increase in the future and will expand further towards higher elevations. Our projections provide evidence for the changing continental threat of vector-borne diseases and can guide public health policy decisions in Africa to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue fever risk.
Background Bahir Dar International Airport and its surrounding habitats are known for their rich avifaunal diversity, which results in bird-aircraft collisions as a fundamental problem in the area. A study on bird diversity and bird-aircraft strikes at Bahir Dar International Airport was conducted between February 2020 and August 2020. Based on its vegetation structures, the study area was classified into four habitat types namely; bushland, grassland, wetland, and modified habitats. Transect and point count methods were used to collect data on avian diversity and abundance. Questionnaire surveys, interviews, and document analysis were used to gather information about incidents and protection measures against bird-aircraft strike problems. Shannon–Wiener diversity index, Simpson’s similarity index, ANOVA, and chi-square test were used for data analysis. Results A total of 80 avian species belonging to 15 orders and 40 families were identified in the study area. The highest species diversity (H’ = 3.59) and species evenness (E = 0.96) were recorded in modified habitats during the wet season. Relative abundance categories of birds in the study area showed that most were uncommon birds. Birds pose severe threats to aircraft in the airport and 92.3% of the respondents replied that most bird-aircraft strikes occurred early in the morning and late in the afternoon when birds remain more active. The majority (88.5%) of questionnaire participants confirmed that bird-aircraft strike incidents frequently occurred during the time of takeoff and landing of the aircraft. It is also known that on average forty bird-aircraft collisions per year happen at the airport. Conclusion Bahir Dar International Airport is rich in its bird diversity that recalls the aviation authority to work in collaboration with different organizations to avoid bird-aircraft strike problems using different control measures without compromising the conservation of birds.
Introduction The Nile monitor (Varanus niloticus) is the largest lizard native to Sub-Saharan Africa along the Nile River. The species inhabits a wide variety of habitats including woodlands, grasslands, mangroves, and swamps. Although the practice is not common in the Lake Tana Biosphere Reserve, the species is being hunted in Sahelian Africa for its leather, food, and pet trade. Consequently, the species is listed under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species. Methodology Data collection was based on onsite GIS aided presence recording. Each record of the species was first vetted for data quality. A multicollinearity analysis was conducted before fitting the MaxEnt model to the 19 bioclimatic variables. Since it provides good coverage for Africa, the Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Atmosphere Ocean (HadGEM2-AO) model was used for extracting future climate scenarios. The implementation of change factor was to correct the modeled mean climate from the climate models. The jackknife test was selected to measure the contribution of each environmental predictor variable. Area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic was used to evaluate the performance of MaxEnt model. Results On average 2750 individuals of Nile monitor were recorded within the Lake Tana Biosphere Reserve. Mean annual temperature, precipitation and temperature were the most important predictors that limit the potential distribution of Nile monitor in the area. Most of the suitable habitats of Nile monitor were mainly predicted in the northern parts of Lake Tana. The ecological niche model produced an average AUC of 0.85. Notable records of the species were found in the vicinity of the lake and the nearby wetlands. Future projection of potential suitable areas revealed that the currently available suitable area to Nile monitor will decline in both 2050 and 2070 under both RCP 6.5 and RCP 8.5, of which the decline in suitable area under the business as usual scenario is the greatest. Conclusion The potential distribution map for Nile monitor in the Lake Tana Biosphere Reserve can help in planning land use management around its existing habitat range, discover new populations or set priorities to restore its natural habitat for more effective conservation. Extensive reductions in the amount of suitable areas under future climate scenarios suggest that the species may become threatened in future if effective conservation measures are not implemented.
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